Recent April nonfarm payrolls data, which rose 115,000 against softer prior forecasts, has anchored trader sentiment around a 100,000–150,000 May print at 35.5% implied probability. ADP’s 109,000 private-sector gain and stable 4.3% unemployment rate point to gradual labor-market cooling without recessionary signals, yet month-to-month volatility and revisions keep the 0–50,000 bucket at 27% and the 150,000–200,000 range at 23.5%. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty over consumer spending trends, tariff-related hiring shifts, and the June FOMC dot plot, with the next key catalyst being May’s ADP release and initial claims data that could sharpen consensus ahead of the June 5 BLS report.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於100k – 150k 41%
50k – 100k 22%
150k – 200k 20%
200k+ 20%
最新
最新
2026-06-05
<0
15%
0 – 50k
31%
50k – 100k
17%
100k – 150k
46%
150k – 200k
20%
200k+
20%
100k – 150k 41%
50k – 100k 22%
150k – 200k 20%
200k+ 20%
最新
最新
2026-06-05
<0
$138 交易量
15%
0 – 50k
$75 交易量
31%
50k – 100k
$60 交易量
17%
100k – 150k
$63 交易量
46%
150k – 200k
$38 交易量
20%
200k+
$38 交易量
20%
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for May 2026, scheduled to be released on June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmRecent April nonfarm payrolls data, which rose 115,000 against softer prior forecasts, has anchored trader sentiment around a 100,000–150,000 May print at 35.5% implied probability. ADP’s 109,000 private-sector gain and stable 4.3% unemployment rate point to gradual labor-market cooling without recessionary signals, yet month-to-month volatility and revisions keep the 0–50,000 bucket at 27% and the 150,000–200,000 range at 23.5%. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty over consumer spending trends, tariff-related hiring shifts, and the June FOMC dot plot, with the next key catalyst being May’s ADP release and initial claims data that could sharpen consensus ahead of the June 5 BLS report.
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for May 2026, scheduled to be released on June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
市場開放時間： May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ET
交易量
$412結束日期
2026-06-05市場開放時間
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for May 2026, scheduled to be released on June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmRecent April nonfarm payrolls data, which rose 115,000 against softer prior forecasts, has anchored trader sentiment around a 100,000–150,000 May print at 35.5% implied probability. ADP’s 109,000 private-sector gain and stable 4.3% unemployment rate point to gradual labor-market cooling without recessionary signals, yet month-to-month volatility and revisions keep the 0–50,000 bucket at 27% and the 150,000–200,000 range at 23.5%. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty over consumer spending trends, tariff-related hiring shifts, and the June FOMC dot plot, with the next key catalyst being May’s ADP release and initial claims data that could sharpen consensus ahead of the June 5 BLS report.
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for May 2026, scheduled to be released on June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
交易量
$412結束日期
2026-06-05市場開放時間
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent April nonfarm payrolls data, which rose 115,000 against softer prior forecasts, has anchored trader sentiment around a 100,000–150,000 May print at 35.5% implied probability. ADP’s 109,000 private-sector gain and stable 4.3% unemployment rate point to gradual labor-market cooling without recessionary signals, yet month-to-month volatility and revisions keep the 0–50,000 bucket at 27% and the 150,000–200,000 range at 23.5%. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty over consumer spending trends, tariff-related hiring shifts, and the June FOMC dot plot, with the next key catalyst being May’s ADP release and initial claims data that could sharpen consensus ahead of the June 5 BLS report.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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