Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 79.5% implied probability for India’s 2026 annual CPI inflation exceeding 4.50%, driven by April 2026’s year-on-year rate rising to 3.48%—the sixth consecutive monthly increase from 3.40% in March—amid persistent food, energy, and service cost pressures exacerbated by Middle East tensions. Reserve Bank of India’s latest Monetary Policy Committee projections for FY27 (April 2026–March 2027) at 4.6% average, with Q1/Q2 estimates near 4.0–4.4%, alongside Goldman Sachs’ upward revision to 4.6% for 2026, reflect hardening inflation expectations above the 4% target. Lower bins trail due to stalled disinflation, with May CPI data and June MPC meeting as key near-term catalysts potentially influencing the trajectory.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於4.50%以上 66%
2.25%至2.99% 6.5%
低於0.75% 4.0%
0.75%至1.49% 2.9%
$60,464 交易量
$60,464 交易量
低於0.75%
4%
0.75%至1.49%
3%
1.50% 至 2.24%
3%
2.25%至2.99%
6%
3.00%至3.74%
8%
3.75%到4.49%
2%
4.50%以上
78%
4.50%以上 66%
2.25%至2.99% 6.5%
低於0.75% 4.0%
0.75%至1.49% 2.9%
$60,464 交易量
$60,464 交易量
低於0.75%
4%
0.75%至1.49%
3%
1.50% 至 2.24%
3%
2.25%至2.99%
6%
3.00%至3.74%
8%
3.75%到4.49%
2%
4.50%以上
78%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
市場開放時間: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 79.5% implied probability for India’s 2026 annual CPI inflation exceeding 4.50%, driven by April 2026’s year-on-year rate rising to 3.48%—the sixth consecutive monthly increase from 3.40% in March—amid persistent food, energy, and service cost pressures exacerbated by Middle East tensions. Reserve Bank of India’s latest Monetary Policy Committee projections for FY27 (April 2026–March 2027) at 4.6% average, with Q1/Q2 estimates near 4.0–4.4%, alongside Goldman Sachs’ upward revision to 4.6% for 2026, reflect hardening inflation expectations above the 4% target. Lower bins trail due to stalled disinflation, with May CPI data and June MPC meeting as key near-term catalysts potentially influencing the trajectory.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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