Recent July 2026 CPI data at 4.45%—up from 4.38% in June and the highest since late 2024—has anchored trader consensus toward the 4.50%+ outcome with 79.5% implied probability. Persistent supply-side pressures from elevated energy costs tied to Middle East tensions, rupee depreciation, and food inflation at 5.52% outweigh RBI's neutral policy stance and tolerance band around its 4% target. Base effects are projected to push readings above 5% by September, while forecasts for full-year average inflation hover near 4.8-5.0%. Key swing factors include monsoon performance and global commodity trends that could still moderate the annual print.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於4.50%以上 80%
3.75%到4.49% 13.3%
低於0.75% 3.9%
3.00%至3.74% 2.3%
$78,329 交易量
$78,329 交易量
低於0.75%
4%
0.75%至1.49%
<1%
1.50% 至 2.24%
1%
2.25%至2.99%
1%
3.00%至3.74%
2%
3.75%到4.49%
13%
4.50%以上
80%
4.50%以上 80%
3.75%到4.49% 13.3%
低於0.75% 3.9%
3.00%至3.74% 2.3%
$78,329 交易量
$78,329 交易量
低於0.75%
4%
0.75%至1.49%
<1%
1.50% 至 2.24%
1%
2.25%至2.99%
1%
3.00%至3.74%
2%
3.75%到4.49%
13%
4.50%以上
80%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
市場開放時間: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent July 2026 CPI data at 4.45%—up from 4.38% in June and the highest since late 2024—has anchored trader consensus toward the 4.50%+ outcome with 79.5% implied probability. Persistent supply-side pressures from elevated energy costs tied to Middle East tensions, rupee depreciation, and food inflation at 5.52% outweigh RBI's neutral policy stance and tolerance band around its 4% target. Base effects are projected to push readings above 5% by September, while forecasts for full-year average inflation hover near 4.8-5.0%. Key swing factors include monsoon performance and global commodity trends that could still moderate the annual print.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於



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