Recent contraction in Mexico’s first-quarter GDP, which shrank 0.8 percent, has created a closely contested outlook for second-quarter growth, splitting trader sentiment between the 0.0–0.5 percent and 1.5–2.0 percent buckets at equal 42.5 percent implied probabilities. Weak domestic consumption and industrial output have weighed on near-term momentum, yet Banco de México’s May 25-basis-point cut to a 6.50 percent policy rate and April inflation easing to 4.45 percent signal room for a modest rebound supported by resilient employment and U.S. demand. Traders are weighing these easing signals against lingering trade-policy uncertainty and fiscal headwinds, with the next key catalyst being the release of preliminary Q2 national accounts data expected in late July.