Recent Middle East energy supply disruptions have prompted major forecasters to downgrade 2026 UK GDP projections to 0.8–1.1 percent, injecting balanced uncertainty into trader-implied odds for Q2 QoQ growth and keeping probabilities tightly clustered between contraction and modest expansion. Solid 0.6 percent Q1 expansion provides a high base, yet May PMI readings and softening labor market indicators point to a sharp sequential slowdown amid elevated wholesale prices and tighter financial conditions. Bank of England policy decisions and May inflation data remain key near-term swing factors that could shift the distribution of outcomes before the August release.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於0.0–0.1% 95%
Negative 47%
1.0%+ 47%
0.4–0.5% 43%
最新
最新
2026-08-12
Negative
47%
0.0–0.1%
95%
0.2–0.3%
42%
0.4–0.5%
43%
0.6–0.7%
42%
0.8–0.9%
42%
1.0%+
47%
0.0–0.1% 95%
Negative 47%
1.0%+ 47%
0.4–0.5% 43%
最新
最新
2026-08-12
Negative
$0 交易量
47%
0.0–0.1%
$0 交易量
95%
0.2–0.3%
$0 交易量
42%
0.4–0.5%
$0 交易量
43%
0.6–0.7%
$0 交易量
42%
0.8–0.9%
$8 交易量
42%
1.0%+
$40 交易量
47%
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q2 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP Second quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for August 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent Middle East energy supply disruptions have prompted major forecasters to downgrade 2026 UK GDP projections to 0.8–1.1 percent, injecting balanced uncertainty into trader-implied odds for Q2 QoQ growth and keeping probabilities tightly clustered between contraction and modest expansion. Solid 0.6 percent Q1 expansion provides a high base, yet May PMI readings and softening labor market indicators point to a sharp sequential slowdown amid elevated wholesale prices and tighter financial conditions. Bank of England policy decisions and May inflation data remain key near-term swing factors that could shift the distribution of outcomes before the August release.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q2 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP Second quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for August 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
市場開放時間： May 26, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
交易量
$48結束日期
2026-08-12市場開放時間
May 26, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q2 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP Second quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for August 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent Middle East energy supply disruptions have prompted major forecasters to downgrade 2026 UK GDP projections to 0.8–1.1 percent, injecting balanced uncertainty into trader-implied odds for Q2 QoQ growth and keeping probabilities tightly clustered between contraction and modest expansion. Solid 0.6 percent Q1 expansion provides a high base, yet May PMI readings and softening labor market indicators point to a sharp sequential slowdown amid elevated wholesale prices and tighter financial conditions. Bank of England policy decisions and May inflation data remain key near-term swing factors that could shift the distribution of outcomes before the August release.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q2 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP Second quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for August 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
交易量
$48結束日期
2026-08-12市場開放時間
May 26, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Middle East energy supply disruptions have prompted major forecasters to downgrade 2026 UK GDP projections to 0.8–1.1 percent, injecting balanced uncertainty into trader-implied odds for Q2 QoQ growth and keeping probabilities tightly clustered between contraction and modest expansion. Solid 0.6 percent Q1 expansion provides a high base, yet May PMI readings and softening labor market indicators point to a sharp sequential slowdown amid elevated wholesale prices and tighter financial conditions. Bank of England policy decisions and May inflation data remain key near-term swing factors that could shift the distribution of outcomes before the August release.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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