Recent labor market data, including mixed signals from initial claims and private payroll surveys, have left June nonfarm payrolls highly uncertain, with market-implied probabilities tightly clustered between 39% and 42.5% across the 0-200k ranges. Traders are weighing the potential for continued cooling in hiring momentum against risks of a sharper slowdown, influenced by prior-month revisions, wage growth trends, and broader economic resilience. The spread in odds underscores the lack of a clear consensus ahead of the release, as Fed policy expectations remain sensitive to employment thresholds that could shift rate path views.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於0 – 5萬 45%
5萬 – 10萬 42%
10萬 – 15萬 40%
15萬 – 20萬 38%
最新
最新
2026-07-03
<0
11%
0 – 5萬
45%
5萬 – 10萬
42%
10萬 – 15萬
40%
15萬 – 20萬
38%
20萬+
38%
0 – 5萬 45%
5萬 – 10萬 42%
10萬 – 15萬 40%
15萬 – 20萬 38%
最新
最新
2026-07-03
<0
$51 交易量
11%
0 – 5萬
$41 交易量
45%
5萬 – 10萬
$0 交易量
42%
10萬 – 15萬
$40 交易量
40%
15萬 – 20萬
$0 交易量
38%
20萬+
$0 交易量
38%
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for June 2026, scheduled to be released on July 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmRecent labor market data, including mixed signals from initial claims and private payroll surveys, have left June nonfarm payrolls highly uncertain, with market-implied probabilities tightly clustered between 39% and 42.5% across the 0-200k ranges. Traders are weighing the potential for continued cooling in hiring momentum against risks of a sharper slowdown, influenced by prior-month revisions, wage growth trends, and broader economic resilience. The spread in odds underscores the lack of a clear consensus ahead of the release, as Fed policy expectations remain sensitive to employment thresholds that could shift rate path views.
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for June 2026, scheduled to be released on July 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
市場開放時間： Jun 5, 2026, 4:26 PM ET
交易量
$132結束日期
2026-07-03市場開放時間
Jun 5, 2026, 4:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for June 2026, scheduled to be released on July 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmRecent labor market data, including mixed signals from initial claims and private payroll surveys, have left June nonfarm payrolls highly uncertain, with market-implied probabilities tightly clustered between 39% and 42.5% across the 0-200k ranges. Traders are weighing the potential for continued cooling in hiring momentum against risks of a sharper slowdown, influenced by prior-month revisions, wage growth trends, and broader economic resilience. The spread in odds underscores the lack of a clear consensus ahead of the release, as Fed policy expectations remain sensitive to employment thresholds that could shift rate path views.
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for June 2026, scheduled to be released on July 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
交易量
$132結束日期
2026-07-03市場開放時間
Jun 5, 2026, 4:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent labor market data, including mixed signals from initial claims and private payroll surveys, have left June nonfarm payrolls highly uncertain, with market-implied probabilities tightly clustered between 39% and 42.5% across the 0-200k ranges. Traders are weighing the potential for continued cooling in hiring momentum against risks of a sharper slowdown, influenced by prior-month revisions, wage growth trends, and broader economic resilience. The spread in odds underscores the lack of a clear consensus ahead of the release, as Fed policy expectations remain sensitive to employment thresholds that could shift rate path views.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions