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icon for US fertility rate up in Q1 2026?

US fertility rate up in Q1 2026?

icon for US fertility rate up in Q1 2026?

US fertility rate up in Q1 2026?

27% 機率
Polymarket
最新
27% 機率
Polymarket
最新
The CDC estimates a general fertility rate of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q4 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions. The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.Recent preliminary CDC data showing sharp year-over-year drops in January and February 2026 births have anchored trader consensus that the U.S. fertility rate will not rise in Q1 compared to the prior quarter's benchmark. These early figures extend the record-low general fertility rate of 53.1 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 confirmed for all of 2025, reflecting persistent cultural shifts toward delayed childbearing, economic pressures, and below-replacement patterns that have defined the trend since 2007. With no reversal signals emerging from the latest monthly statistics, market-implied odds heavily favor stability or further decline ahead of the next Vital Statistics Rapid Release. This positioning captures the ongoing demographic headwinds shaping public and industry sentiment around family formation.

The CDC estimates a general fertility rate of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q4 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions.

The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.
交易量
$73
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Apr 27, 2026, 4:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The CDC estimates a general fertility rate of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q4 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions. The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.
The CDC estimates a general fertility rate of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q4 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions. The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.Recent preliminary CDC data showing sharp year-over-year drops in January and February 2026 births have anchored trader consensus that the U.S. fertility rate will not rise in Q1 compared to the prior quarter's benchmark. These early figures extend the record-low general fertility rate of 53.1 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 confirmed for all of 2025, reflecting persistent cultural shifts toward delayed childbearing, economic pressures, and below-replacement patterns that have defined the trend since 2007. With no reversal signals emerging from the latest monthly statistics, market-implied odds heavily favor stability or further decline ahead of the next Vital Statistics Rapid Release. This positioning captures the ongoing demographic headwinds shaping public and industry sentiment around family formation.

The CDC estimates a general fertility rate of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q4 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions.

The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.
交易量
$73
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Apr 27, 2026, 4:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The CDC estimates a general fertility rate of 53.3 births per 1,000 women aged 15–44 for Q4 2025 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/natality-dashboard.htm). This market will resolve to "Yes" if the initial reported rate for Q1 2026 exceeds 53.3, according to the CDC's Vital Statistics Rapid Release series. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the CDC does not release general fertility rate data for Q1 2026 by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Resolution will be based on the first published estimate for Q1 2026, regardless of any subsequent revisions. The resolution source will be the CDC’s Vital Statistics Rapid Release.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"US fertility rate up in Q1 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 20% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 20¢, the market collectively assigns a 20% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"US fertility rate up in Q1 2026?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 27, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "US fertility rate up in Q1 2026?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "US fertility rate up in Q1 2026?" is 20% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 20% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "US fertility rate up in Q1 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.