Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "Michael" exceeding $25 million in its fourth domestic weekend at 67.5% implied probability, driven by the Michael Jackson biopic's exceptional legs despite middling critical reception and a 38% Rotten Tomatoes score. After a record-shattering $97 million opening, it posted $54 million in weekend two and a resilient $37.9 million third frame—topping estimates amid competition—pushing domestic cume past $253 million and worldwide to $604 million. Strong midweek holds ($4.7 million Tuesday) and regains of PLF/IMAX screens signal sustained fan momentum, though new challengers like "Devil Wears Prada 2" and "Obsession" could pressure the hold into the 22-25 million range favored at 30%. Final tallies lock Sunday, with tracking underscoring the film's biopic-record trajectory.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於“Michael”第四周末票房
“Michael”第四周末票房
>2500萬 68%
2200-2500萬 30%
1900萬到2200萬 4%
低於1900萬 <1%
最新
最新
2026-05-18
低於1900萬
1%
1900萬到2200萬
4%
2200-2500萬
30%
>2500萬
68%
>2500萬 68%
2200-2500萬 30%
1900萬到2200萬 4%
低於1900萬 <1%
最新
最新
2026-05-18
低於1900萬
$1,114 交易量
1%
1900萬到2200萬
$1,296 交易量
4%
2200-2500萬
$1,187 交易量
30%
>2500萬
$2,866 交易量
68%
This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its fourth weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 15 - May 17) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "Michael" exceeding $25 million in its fourth domestic weekend at 67.5% implied probability, driven by the Michael Jackson biopic's exceptional legs despite middling critical reception and a 38% Rotten Tomatoes score. After a record-shattering $97 million opening, it posted $54 million in weekend two and a resilient $37.9 million third frame—topping estimates amid competition—pushing domestic cume past $253 million and worldwide to $604 million. Strong midweek holds ($4.7 million Tuesday) and regains of PLF/IMAX screens signal sustained fan momentum, though new challengers like "Devil Wears Prada 2" and "Obsession" could pressure the hold into the 22-25 million range favored at 30%. Final tallies lock Sunday, with tracking underscoring the film's biopic-record trajectory.
This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its fourth weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 15 - May 17) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
市場開放時間： May 12, 2026, 6:33 PM ET
交易量
$6,464結束日期
2026-05-18市場開放時間
May 12, 2026, 6:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its fourth weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 15 - May 17) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "Michael" exceeding $25 million in its fourth domestic weekend at 67.5% implied probability, driven by the Michael Jackson biopic's exceptional legs despite middling critical reception and a 38% Rotten Tomatoes score. After a record-shattering $97 million opening, it posted $54 million in weekend two and a resilient $37.9 million third frame—topping estimates amid competition—pushing domestic cume past $253 million and worldwide to $604 million. Strong midweek holds ($4.7 million Tuesday) and regains of PLF/IMAX screens signal sustained fan momentum, though new challengers like "Devil Wears Prada 2" and "Obsession" could pressure the hold into the 22-25 million range favored at 30%. Final tallies lock Sunday, with tracking underscoring the film's biopic-record trajectory.
This market will resolve according to how much "Michael" Weekend Box Office will gross domestically on its fourth weekend. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on this movie's The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) page will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day weekend (May 15 - May 17) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by May 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
交易量
$6,464結束日期
2026-05-18市場開放時間
May 12, 2026, 6:33 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "Michael" exceeding $25 million in its fourth domestic weekend at 67.5% implied probability, driven by the Michael Jackson biopic's exceptional legs despite middling critical reception and a 38% Rotten Tomatoes score. After a record-shattering $97 million opening, it posted $54 million in weekend two and a resilient $37.9 million third frame—topping estimates amid competition—pushing domestic cume past $253 million and worldwide to $604 million. Strong midweek holds ($4.7 million Tuesday) and regains of PLF/IMAX screens signal sustained fan momentum, though new challengers like "Devil Wears Prada 2" and "Obsession" could pressure the hold into the 22-25 million range favored at 30%. Final tallies lock Sunday, with tracking underscoring the film's biopic-record trajectory.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions