Elon Musk's typical posting rhythm on X is shaping trader expectations for the May 15-22 window, with the tightest odds clustered on the 180-219 tweet ranges. His volume usually tracks business updates at Tesla and SpaceX, responses to news cycles, and personal commentary, producing week-to-week swings that keep the distribution competitive. The close contest between those two leading bins underscores uncertainty over whether a steady cadence or a sudden spike from announcements or debates will dominate the final days. Historical patterns show Musk rarely falls into extreme lows or highs without a clear catalyst, so any late-week developments could quickly shift the implied probabilities before the period closes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於180-199 20%
200-219 18.9%
160-179 15%
220-239 12.9%
$4,137,389 交易量
$4,137,389 交易量
2026-05-22
40-59
<1%
60-79
<1%
80-99
<1%
100-119
1%
120-139
3%
140-159
9%
160-179
15%
180-199
20%
200-219
19%
220-239
13%
240-259
8%
260-279
5%
280-299
3%
300-319
1%
320-339
1%
340-359
1%
360-379
<1%
380-399
<1%
400-419
<1%
420-439
<1%
440-459
<1%
460-479
<1%
480-499
<1%
500+
<1%
180-199 20%
200-219 18.9%
160-179 15%
220-239 12.9%
$4,137,389 交易量
$4,137,389 交易量
2026-05-22
40-59
$184,924 交易量
<1%
60-79
$258,849 交易量
<1%
80-99
$245,680 交易量
<1%
100-119
$225,457 交易量
1%
120-139
$170,652 交易量
3%
140-159
$153,775 交易量
9%
160-179
$125,712 交易量
15%
180-199
$109,191 交易量
20%
200-219
$151,231 交易量
19%
220-239
$141,446 交易量
13%
240-259
$105,853 交易量
8%
260-279
$112,305 交易量
5%
280-299
$102,467 交易量
3%
300-319
$130,249 交易量
1%
320-339
$106,025 交易量
1%
340-359
$135,277 交易量
1%
360-379
$134,165 交易量
<1%
380-399
$148,923 交易量
<1%
400-419
$167,064 交易量
<1%
420-439
$228,920 交易量
<1%
440-459
$121,203 交易量
<1%
460-479
$125,876 交易量
<1%
480-499
$168,834 交易量
<1%
500+
$268,921 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 15 12:00 PM ET to May 22, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk's typical posting rhythm on X is shaping trader expectations for the May 15-22 window, with the tightest odds clustered on the 180-219 tweet ranges. His volume usually tracks business updates at Tesla and SpaceX, responses to news cycles, and personal commentary, producing week-to-week swings that keep the distribution competitive. The close contest between those two leading bins underscores uncertainty over whether a steady cadence or a sudden spike from announcements or debates will dominate the final days. Historical patterns show Musk rarely falls into extreme lows or highs without a clear catalyst, so any late-week developments could quickly shift the implied probabilities before the period closes.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 15 12:00 PM ET to May 22, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
市場開放時間： May 12, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
交易量
$4,137,389結束日期
2026-05-22市場開放時間
May 12, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 15 12:00 PM ET to May 22, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk's typical posting rhythm on X is shaping trader expectations for the May 15-22 window, with the tightest odds clustered on the 180-219 tweet ranges. His volume usually tracks business updates at Tesla and SpaceX, responses to news cycles, and personal commentary, producing week-to-week swings that keep the distribution competitive. The close contest between those two leading bins underscores uncertainty over whether a steady cadence or a sudden spike from announcements or debates will dominate the final days. Historical patterns show Musk rarely falls into extreme lows or highs without a clear catalyst, so any late-week developments could quickly shift the implied probabilities before the period closes.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from May 15 12:00 PM ET to May 22, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
交易量
$4,137,389結束日期
2026-05-22市場開放時間
May 12, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk's typical posting rhythm on X is shaping trader expectations for the May 15-22 window, with the tightest odds clustered on the 180-219 tweet ranges. His volume usually tracks business updates at Tesla and SpaceX, responses to news cycles, and personal commentary, producing week-to-week swings that keep the distribution competitive. The close contest between those two leading bins underscores uncertainty over whether a steady cadence or a sudden spike from announcements or debates will dominate the final days. Historical patterns show Musk rarely falls into extreme lows or highs without a clear catalyst, so any late-week developments could quickly shift the implied probabilities before the period closes.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions