Recent acceleration in Mexico’s October headline CPI to 3.75% year-over-year, exceeding expectations and driven by non-core items such as energy and agricultural prices, has anchored trader sentiment for 2026 annual inflation near 3.9%. Analyst surveys from Banxico and private banks place the year-end median at 3.88–3.90%, with core inflation holding around 3.80%, reflecting persistent services pressures offset by economic slack and the Bank of Mexico’s November 25-basis-point rate cut to 6.25%. This keeps the 3.50–3.99% range the narrow leader at 46.3% implied probability, while the 4.00–4.49% bucket at 37.5% captures upside risks from peso volatility, minimum-wage pass-through, and potential El Niño effects. November CPI data due in December and any further monetary policy signals remain key swing factors before year-end resolution.