Strong consumer spending and AI-driven business investment have positioned the ≥3.0% outcome as the clear market leader for Q3 2026 U.S. GDP growth at 69.5% implied probability. Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcasts track 5.1% annualized growth as of September 17, reflecting upward revisions to personal consumption expenditures and government outlays amid resilient retail sales. August nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 with unemployment steady at 4.1%, while core inflation metrics remain elevated near 3.3–3.4% year-over-year, prompting the Federal Reserve’s September 16 rate hike to a 3.75–4.00% target range. These factors have sustained trader consensus around above-trend expansion despite softer Q2 prints and moderating labor-market momentum. The official BEA advance estimate, due in late October, represents the key near-term catalyst.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於≥3.0% 70%
2.5–3.0% 11%
2.0–2.5% 7%
<0.5% 3.2%
$35,024 交易量
$35,024 交易量
2026-10-29
<0.5%
3%
0.5–1.0%
2%
1.0–1.5%
2%
1.5–2.0%
8%
2.0–2.5%
7%
2.5–3.0%
11%
≥3.0%
70%
≥3.0% 70%
2.5–3.0% 11%
2.0–2.5% 7%
<0.5% 3.2%
$35,024 交易量
$35,024 交易量
2026-10-29
<0.5%
$1,224 交易量
3%
0.5–1.0%
$872 交易量
2%
1.0–1.5%
$860 交易量
2%
1.5–2.0%
$1,030 交易量
8%
2.0–2.5%
$2,353 交易量
7%
2.5–3.0%
$3,925 交易量
11%
≥3.0%
$24,760 交易量
70%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Strong consumer spending and AI-driven business investment have positioned the ≥3.0% outcome as the clear market leader for Q3 2026 U.S. GDP growth at 69.5% implied probability. Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcasts track 5.1% annualized growth as of September 17, reflecting upward revisions to personal consumption expenditures and government outlays amid resilient retail sales. August nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 with unemployment steady at 4.1%, while core inflation metrics remain elevated near 3.3–3.4% year-over-year, prompting the Federal Reserve’s September 16 rate hike to a 3.75–4.00% target range. These factors have sustained trader consensus around above-trend expansion despite softer Q2 prints and moderating labor-market momentum. The official BEA advance estimate, due in late October, represents the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
市場開放時間： Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
交易量
$35,024結束日期
2026-10-29市場開放時間
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Strong consumer spending and AI-driven business investment have positioned the ≥3.0% outcome as the clear market leader for Q3 2026 U.S. GDP growth at 69.5% implied probability. Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcasts track 5.1% annualized growth as of September 17, reflecting upward revisions to personal consumption expenditures and government outlays amid resilient retail sales. August nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 with unemployment steady at 4.1%, while core inflation metrics remain elevated near 3.3–3.4% year-over-year, prompting the Federal Reserve’s September 16 rate hike to a 3.75–4.00% target range. These factors have sustained trader consensus around above-trend expansion despite softer Q2 prints and moderating labor-market momentum. The official BEA advance estimate, due in late October, represents the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
交易量
$35,024結束日期
2026-10-29市場開放時間
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETStrong consumer spending and AI-driven business investment have positioned the ≥3.0% outcome as the clear market leader for Q3 2026 U.S. GDP growth at 69.5% implied probability. Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcasts track 5.1% annualized growth as of September 17, reflecting upward revisions to personal consumption expenditures and government outlays amid resilient retail sales. August nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000 with unemployment steady at 4.1%, while core inflation metrics remain elevated near 3.3–3.4% year-over-year, prompting the Federal Reserve’s September 16 rate hike to a 3.75–4.00% target range. These factors have sustained trader consensus around above-trend expansion despite softer Q2 prints and moderating labor-market momentum. The official BEA advance estimate, due in late October, represents the key near-term catalyst.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions