Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized—below consensus and Q1’s 2.1% pace—has anchored trader sentiment for Q3, highlighting a slowdown in consumer spending momentum and net exports alongside resilient business investment tied to AI. Mixed signals from June leading indicators (down 0.2% but stable six-month trends), unemployment near 4.2-4.5%, and sticky core PCE inflation around 3% sustain uncertainty over whether AI-driven capex and any inventory rebound can offset softening household demand. With market-implied odds clustered tightly between 37-44% across ranges, the contest reflects balanced risks around Fed policy patience, labor-market stability, and potential upside from productivity gains versus downside from elevated energy costs or weaker consumption. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming PCE releases, employment data, and any FOMC signals on rate-path revisions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於2.5–3.0% 44%
≥3.0% 43%
<0.5% 40%
1.0–1.5% 38%
最新
最新
2026-10-29
<0.5%
40%
0.5–1.0%
37%
1.0–1.5%
38%
1.5–2.0%
38%
2.0–2.5%
38%
2.5–3.0%
44%
≥3.0%
43%
2.5–3.0% 44%
≥3.0% 43%
<0.5% 40%
1.0–1.5% 38%
最新
最新
2026-10-29
<0.5%
$0 交易量
40%
0.5–1.0%
$0 交易量
37%
1.0–1.5%
$0 交易量
38%
1.5–2.0%
$0 交易量
38%
2.0–2.5%
$0 交易量
38%
2.5–3.0%
$0 交易量
44%
≥3.0%
$0 交易量
43%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized—below consensus and Q1’s 2.1% pace—has anchored trader sentiment for Q3, highlighting a slowdown in consumer spending momentum and net exports alongside resilient business investment tied to AI. Mixed signals from June leading indicators (down 0.2% but stable six-month trends), unemployment near 4.2-4.5%, and sticky core PCE inflation around 3% sustain uncertainty over whether AI-driven capex and any inventory rebound can offset softening household demand. With market-implied odds clustered tightly between 37-44% across ranges, the contest reflects balanced risks around Fed policy patience, labor-market stability, and potential upside from productivity gains versus downside from elevated energy costs or weaker consumption. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming PCE releases, employment data, and any FOMC signals on rate-path revisions.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
市場開放時間： Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-10-29市場開放時間
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized—below consensus and Q1’s 2.1% pace—has anchored trader sentiment for Q3, highlighting a slowdown in consumer spending momentum and net exports alongside resilient business investment tied to AI. Mixed signals from June leading indicators (down 0.2% but stable six-month trends), unemployment near 4.2-4.5%, and sticky core PCE inflation around 3% sustain uncertainty over whether AI-driven capex and any inventory rebound can offset softening household demand. With market-implied odds clustered tightly between 37-44% across ranges, the contest reflects balanced risks around Fed policy patience, labor-market stability, and potential upside from productivity gains versus downside from elevated energy costs or weaker consumption. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming PCE releases, employment data, and any FOMC signals on rate-path revisions.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-10-29市場開放時間
Jul 31, 2026, 5:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q2 2026 GDP growth of 1.5% annualized—below consensus and Q1’s 2.1% pace—has anchored trader sentiment for Q3, highlighting a slowdown in consumer spending momentum and net exports alongside resilient business investment tied to AI. Mixed signals from June leading indicators (down 0.2% but stable six-month trends), unemployment near 4.2-4.5%, and sticky core PCE inflation around 3% sustain uncertainty over whether AI-driven capex and any inventory rebound can offset softening household demand. With market-implied odds clustered tightly between 37-44% across ranges, the contest reflects balanced risks around Fed policy patience, labor-market stability, and potential upside from productivity gains versus downside from elevated energy costs or weaker consumption. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming PCE releases, employment data, and any FOMC signals on rate-path revisions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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