**The 83% market-implied probability of no change at the Bank of Mexico's November 2026 meeting reflects trader consensus around Banxico's communicated pause in its easing cycle.** After cutting the benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 6.50% in May and holding steady at the August 6 decision, the central bank has emphasized maintaining the current restrictive stance amid inflation's decline to 3.37% in June—the lowest reading since late 2020—while core measures remain above the 3% target. Recent data showing continued disinflation without second-round effects from earlier fiscal measures reinforces expectations that policymakers will keep rates unchanged through year-end, consistent with analyst forecasts for a 6.50% policy rate. Key upcoming catalysts include the September 24 decision and September-quarter inflation prints that could influence the November outcome.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於未有變動 83%
上調超過50個基點 7.7%
上調25個基點 5.1%
下調25個基點 5%
最新
最新
2026-11-05
下調超過50個基點
4%
下調25個基點
5%
未有變動
83%
上調25個基點
5%
上調超過50個基點
8%
未有變動 83%
上調超過50個基點 7.7%
上調25個基點 5.1%
下調25個基點 5%
最新
最新
2026-11-05
下調超過50個基點
$73 交易量
4%
下調25個基點
$73 交易量
5%
未有變動
$1,989 交易量
83%
上調25個基點
$118 交易量
5%
上調超過50個基點
$63 交易量
8%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**The 83% market-implied probability of no change at the Bank of Mexico's November 2026 meeting reflects trader consensus around Banxico's communicated pause in its easing cycle.** After cutting the benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 6.50% in May and holding steady at the August 6 decision, the central bank has emphasized maintaining the current restrictive stance amid inflation's decline to 3.37% in June—the lowest reading since late 2020—while core measures remain above the 3% target. Recent data showing continued disinflation without second-round effects from earlier fiscal measures reinforces expectations that policymakers will keep rates unchanged through year-end, consistent with analyst forecasts for a 6.50% policy rate. Key upcoming catalysts include the September 24 decision and September-quarter inflation prints that could influence the November outcome.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 6, 2026, 3:16 PM ET
交易量
$2,315結束日期
2026-11-05市場開放時間
Aug 6, 2026, 3:16 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**The 83% market-implied probability of no change at the Bank of Mexico's November 2026 meeting reflects trader consensus around Banxico's communicated pause in its easing cycle.** After cutting the benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 6.50% in May and holding steady at the August 6 decision, the central bank has emphasized maintaining the current restrictive stance amid inflation's decline to 3.37% in June—the lowest reading since late 2020—while core measures remain above the 3% target. Recent data showing continued disinflation without second-round effects from earlier fiscal measures reinforces expectations that policymakers will keep rates unchanged through year-end, consistent with analyst forecasts for a 6.50% policy rate. Key upcoming catalysts include the September 24 decision and September-quarter inflation prints that could influence the November outcome.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
交易量
$2,315結束日期
2026-11-05市場開放時間
Aug 6, 2026, 3:16 PM ET**The 83% market-implied probability of no change at the Bank of Mexico's November 2026 meeting reflects trader consensus around Banxico's communicated pause in its easing cycle.** After cutting the benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 6.50% in May and holding steady at the August 6 decision, the central bank has emphasized maintaining the current restrictive stance amid inflation's decline to 3.37% in June—the lowest reading since late 2020—while core measures remain above the 3% target. Recent data showing continued disinflation without second-round effects from earlier fiscal measures reinforces expectations that policymakers will keep rates unchanged through year-end, consistent with analyst forecasts for a 6.50% policy rate. Key upcoming catalysts include the September 24 decision and September-quarter inflation prints that could influence the November outcome.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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