The dominant 94.5% market-implied probability of no change at Banxico’s November 5 meeting stems from the central bank’s unanimous September hold at 6.50%, its explicit decoupling from Federal Reserve actions, and the ongoing disinflation trajectory. Headline inflation stood near 3.4% in recent readings while core eased modestly toward 3.8%, with forecasts unchanged for convergence to the 3% target only in Q4 2027. Persistent economic slack, absence of demand pressures, and upside risks from U.S. policy shifts and geopolitics reinforce the cautious stance. Private-sector surveys project the rate unchanged through year-end. A sharper-than-expected inflation rebound or material peso depreciation could still alter the outlook.