The Reserve Bank of Australia’s September 29 decision to raise the cash rate 25 basis points to 4.60 percent—its fourth hike of 2026—anchors current market-implied odds heavily toward no change at the November 3 meeting. Persistent inflation above target, driven by domestic capacity pressures and elevated global energy prices amid Middle East conflict, prompted the move, yet recent labor-market easing and slowing domestic demand have tempered expectations for immediate follow-through. Traders price in just a 17.6 percent chance of another 25-basis-point increase, reflecting the cumulative impact of prior tightening and the RBA’s focus on allowing lags to work through the economy ahead of the September-quarter CPI release on October 28. This skin-in-the-game consensus highlights uncertainty around whether further tightening is warranted before year-end.