Traders assign a 71.5% implied probability that Strait of Hormuz commercial traffic will not return to normal levels by June 30, reflecting sustained disruption from the Iran conflict that began in late February. Despite the April 8 ceasefire, vessel transits remain at roughly 5-10% of pre-war averages of 120-140 daily passages, with recent data showing only single-digit crossings amid Iranian restrictions, potential mine clearance requirements, and canceled insurance coverage. New Iranian protocols for fees and approvals, announced in mid-May, have further constrained flows, while over 1,500 vessels and 22,500 mariners stay stranded. Key near-term catalysts include U.S. de-mining operations and any IRGC concessions, yet market pricing aligns with comparable forecasts placing full normalization no earlier than late summer.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$6,497,012 交易量
$6,497,012 交易量
2026-06-30
是
$6,497,012 交易量
$6,497,012 交易量
2026-06-30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Traders assign a 71.5% implied probability that Strait of Hormuz commercial traffic will not return to normal levels by June 30, reflecting sustained disruption from the Iran conflict that began in late February. Despite the April 8 ceasefire, vessel transits remain at roughly 5-10% of pre-war averages of 120-140 daily passages, with recent data showing only single-digit crossings amid Iranian restrictions, potential mine clearance requirements, and canceled insurance coverage. New Iranian protocols for fees and approvals, announced in mid-May, have further constrained flows, while over 1,500 vessels and 22,500 mariners stay stranded. Key near-term catalysts include U.S. de-mining operations and any IRGC concessions, yet market pricing aligns with comparable forecasts placing full normalization no earlier than late summer.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市場開放時間： Apr 13, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
交易量
$6,497,012結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Apr 13, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Traders assign a 71.5% implied probability that Strait of Hormuz commercial traffic will not return to normal levels by June 30, reflecting sustained disruption from the Iran conflict that began in late February. Despite the April 8 ceasefire, vessel transits remain at roughly 5-10% of pre-war averages of 120-140 daily passages, with recent data showing only single-digit crossings amid Iranian restrictions, potential mine clearance requirements, and canceled insurance coverage. New Iranian protocols for fees and approvals, announced in mid-May, have further constrained flows, while over 1,500 vessels and 22,500 mariners stay stranded. Key near-term catalysts include U.S. de-mining operations and any IRGC concessions, yet market pricing aligns with comparable forecasts placing full normalization no earlier than late summer.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$6,497,025結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Apr 13, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 71.5% implied probability that Strait of Hormuz commercial traffic will not return to normal levels by June 30, reflecting sustained disruption from the Iran conflict that began in late February. Despite the April 8 ceasefire, vessel transits remain at roughly 5-10% of pre-war averages of 120-140 daily passages, with recent data showing only single-digit crossings amid Iranian restrictions, potential mine clearance requirements, and canceled insurance coverage. New Iranian protocols for fees and approvals, announced in mid-May, have further constrained flows, while over 1,500 vessels and 22,500 mariners stay stranded. Key near-term catalysts include U.S. de-mining operations and any IRGC concessions, yet market pricing aligns with comparable forecasts placing full normalization no earlier than late summer.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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