The U.S. conducted a targeted January 2026 special operation in Venezuela to capture Nicolás Maduro through airstrikes and a brief apprehension raid, without establishing territorial control or launching a sustained ground campaign. Subsequent policy has emphasized counter-cartel strikes at sea, sanctions enforcement, and limited joint actions in countries like Ecuador rather than broader military offensives. No comparable operations have occurred against other Latin American nations through mid-August, and related prediction markets assign low probabilities to invasions of specific countries such as Mexico or Colombia. Traders view the administration’s approach as assertive but constrained by the narrow scope of prior actions, regional diplomatic pushback, and absence of triggers for large-scale intervention in the remaining months of 2026.