Strong diplomatic engagement, deep economic integration under the USMCA, and Mexican assertions of sovereignty have kept full-scale U.S. military invasion off the table through mid-2026. Early-year rhetoric around cartel operations produced joint intelligence efforts and targeted cooperation rather than unilateral action, with no authorizing legislation, large-scale troop deployments, or congressional authorization emerging. Traders assign 97.5% probability to “No” because historical precedent, alliance structures, and mutual trade dependencies make invasion a high-cost outlier absent extraordinary provocation. A sudden, large-scale cartel attack on U.S. soil, abrupt breakdown in bilateral security talks, or major policy shift late in the year remain the narrow pathways that could still move the market before December 31.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
3% 機率
$250,796 交易量
$250,796 交易量
2026-12-31
是
3% 機率
$250,796 交易量
$250,796 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Strong diplomatic engagement, deep economic integration under the USMCA, and Mexican assertions of sovereignty have kept full-scale U.S. military invasion off the table through mid-2026. Early-year rhetoric around cartel operations produced joint intelligence efforts and targeted cooperation rather than unilateral action, with no authorizing legislation, large-scale troop deployments, or congressional authorization emerging. Traders assign 97.5% probability to “No” because historical precedent, alliance structures, and mutual trade dependencies make invasion a high-cost outlier absent extraordinary provocation. A sudden, large-scale cartel attack on U.S. soil, abrupt breakdown in bilateral security talks, or major policy shift late in the year remain the narrow pathways that could still move the market before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jan 5, 2026, 5:17 PM ET
交易量
$250,796結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 5, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Strong diplomatic engagement, deep economic integration under the USMCA, and Mexican assertions of sovereignty have kept full-scale U.S. military invasion off the table through mid-2026. Early-year rhetoric around cartel operations produced joint intelligence efforts and targeted cooperation rather than unilateral action, with no authorizing legislation, large-scale troop deployments, or congressional authorization emerging. Traders assign 97.5% probability to “No” because historical precedent, alliance structures, and mutual trade dependencies make invasion a high-cost outlier absent extraordinary provocation. A sudden, large-scale cartel attack on U.S. soil, abrupt breakdown in bilateral security talks, or major policy shift late in the year remain the narrow pathways that could still move the market before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$250,796結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 5, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong diplomatic engagement, deep economic integration under the USMCA, and Mexican assertions of sovereignty have kept full-scale U.S. military invasion off the table through mid-2026. Early-year rhetoric around cartel operations produced joint intelligence efforts and targeted cooperation rather than unilateral action, with no authorizing legislation, large-scale troop deployments, or congressional authorization emerging. Traders assign 97.5% probability to “No” because historical precedent, alliance structures, and mutual trade dependencies make invasion a high-cost outlier absent extraordinary provocation. A sudden, large-scale cartel attack on U.S. soil, abrupt breakdown in bilateral security talks, or major policy shift late in the year remain the narrow pathways that could still move the market before December 31.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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