Trader consensus prices "No" at 93.5% for a U.S. invasion of Mexico in 2026, driven by the absence of any verified military mobilization despite President Trump's May 7 rhetoric threatening ground forces against drug cartels if Mexico does not act. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has repeatedly rejected unilateral U.S. military action, emphasizing sovereignty, while bilateral security cooperation continues through joint intelligence operations, CIA-assisted cartel hunts, and Senate-approved U.S. troop training exercises (April 30). U.S. congressional Democrats warned against such moves in January, citing risks to cooperation, and deep USMCA economic ties deter escalation. Late-breaking cartel attacks on U.S. personnel or diplomatic breakdowns could shift odds, but current evidence shows de-escalation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$106,324 交易量
$106,324 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$106,324 交易量
$106,324 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 93.5% for a U.S. invasion of Mexico in 2026, driven by the absence of any verified military mobilization despite President Trump's May 7 rhetoric threatening ground forces against drug cartels if Mexico does not act. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has repeatedly rejected unilateral U.S. military action, emphasizing sovereignty, while bilateral security cooperation continues through joint intelligence operations, CIA-assisted cartel hunts, and Senate-approved U.S. troop training exercises (April 30). U.S. congressional Democrats warned against such moves in January, citing risks to cooperation, and deep USMCA economic ties deter escalation. Late-breaking cartel attacks on U.S. personnel or diplomatic breakdowns could shift odds, but current evidence shows de-escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jan 5, 2026, 5:17 PM ET
交易量
$106,324結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 5, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices "No" at 93.5% for a U.S. invasion of Mexico in 2026, driven by the absence of any verified military mobilization despite President Trump's May 7 rhetoric threatening ground forces against drug cartels if Mexico does not act. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has repeatedly rejected unilateral U.S. military action, emphasizing sovereignty, while bilateral security cooperation continues through joint intelligence operations, CIA-assisted cartel hunts, and Senate-approved U.S. troop training exercises (April 30). U.S. congressional Democrats warned against such moves in January, citing risks to cooperation, and deep USMCA economic ties deter escalation. Late-breaking cartel attacks on U.S. personnel or diplomatic breakdowns could shift odds, but current evidence shows de-escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Mexican land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Mexico or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$106,324結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 5, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 93.5% for a U.S. invasion of Mexico in 2026, driven by the absence of any verified military mobilization despite President Trump's May 7 rhetoric threatening ground forces against drug cartels if Mexico does not act. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has repeatedly rejected unilateral U.S. military action, emphasizing sovereignty, while bilateral security cooperation continues through joint intelligence operations, CIA-assisted cartel hunts, and Senate-approved U.S. troop training exercises (April 30). U.S. congressional Democrats warned against such moves in January, citing risks to cooperation, and deep USMCA economic ties deter escalation. Late-breaking cartel attacks on U.S. personnel or diplomatic breakdowns could shift odds, but current evidence shows de-escalation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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