Trader consensus reflects a 93.5% implied probability against a U.S. invasion of Colombia in 2026, driven by de-escalation following early-year tensions. President Trump's January 2026 threats of military action—linked to drug trafficking concerns after U.S. intervention in Venezuela—prompted defiant responses from President Gustavo Petro and defense officials, briefly elevating risks. However, their February White House meeting thawed relations, yielding joint anti-drug trafficking commitments using U.S. intelligence and technology, alongside stabilizing trade flows. No subsequent escalation, military buildup, or casus belli has emerged amid Colombia's approaching presidential election, where U.S. policy alignment is prioritized over confrontation. Late-breaking diplomatic ruptures or regional crises could shift odds, but current signals favor continued bilateral cooperation through year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$26,294 交易量
$26,294 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$26,294 交易量
$26,294 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects a 93.5% implied probability against a U.S. invasion of Colombia in 2026, driven by de-escalation following early-year tensions. President Trump's January 2026 threats of military action—linked to drug trafficking concerns after U.S. intervention in Venezuela—prompted defiant responses from President Gustavo Petro and defense officials, briefly elevating risks. However, their February White House meeting thawed relations, yielding joint anti-drug trafficking commitments using U.S. intelligence and technology, alongside stabilizing trade flows. No subsequent escalation, military buildup, or casus belli has emerged amid Colombia's approaching presidential election, where U.S. policy alignment is prioritized over confrontation. Late-breaking diplomatic ruptures or regional crises could shift odds, but current signals favor continued bilateral cooperation through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jan 5, 2026, 5:16 PM ET
交易量
$26,294結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 5, 2026, 5:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus reflects a 93.5% implied probability against a U.S. invasion of Colombia in 2026, driven by de-escalation following early-year tensions. President Trump's January 2026 threats of military action—linked to drug trafficking concerns after U.S. intervention in Venezuela—prompted defiant responses from President Gustavo Petro and defense officials, briefly elevating risks. However, their February White House meeting thawed relations, yielding joint anti-drug trafficking commitments using U.S. intelligence and technology, alongside stabilizing trade flows. No subsequent escalation, military buildup, or casus belli has emerged amid Colombia's approaching presidential election, where U.S. policy alignment is prioritized over confrontation. Late-breaking diplomatic ruptures or regional crises could shift odds, but current signals favor continued bilateral cooperation through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Colombian land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Colombia or the United States, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$26,294結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 5, 2026, 5:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 93.5% implied probability against a U.S. invasion of Colombia in 2026, driven by de-escalation following early-year tensions. President Trump's January 2026 threats of military action—linked to drug trafficking concerns after U.S. intervention in Venezuela—prompted defiant responses from President Gustavo Petro and defense officials, briefly elevating risks. However, their February White House meeting thawed relations, yielding joint anti-drug trafficking commitments using U.S. intelligence and technology, alongside stabilizing trade flows. No subsequent escalation, military buildup, or casus belli has emerged amid Colombia's approaching presidential election, where U.S. policy alignment is prioritized over confrontation. Late-breaking diplomatic ruptures or regional crises could shift odds, but current signals favor continued bilateral cooperation through year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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