The U.S.-Colombia security partnership, reinforced by Colombia’s new conservative government under President Abelardo de la Espriella, drives the 97.3% trader consensus against an invasion. Recent developments include the invited deployment of roughly 600 U.S. troops from the 10th Mountain Division for joint training exercises such as Southern Vanguard, expanded counter-narcotics operations under the Shield of the Americas and Americas Counter-Cartel Coalition, and U.S. support following Colombia’s August earthquake. These steps build on longstanding cooperation against shared threats like drug trafficking networks, with Colombian approval for joint actions rather than any adversarial posture. An invasion would require a sharp reversal of this alignment, which current diplomatic and military coordination shows no signs of occurring before year-end.