Trader consensus prices "No" at 93.5% for Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by May's end, driven by persistent US-Iran naval skirmishes and IRGC patrols that have throttled commercial shipping to a trickle since the March 2026 crisis escalation. Recent incidents, including a French container ship strike on May 5 and intensified dark shipping with 521 RF transmissions but minimal AIS-matched transits on May 8, underscore ongoing risks, leaving over 1,500 vessels stranded. Despite limited US-assisted passages for two merchant ships earlier in May, no diplomatic breakthroughs or de-escalation signals have emerged, with World Bank forecasts pointing to normalization only in late 2026 amid unresolved military tensions and sanctions. A sudden ceasefire or multilateral talks could shift odds, but barriers remain formidable.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$12,966,211 交易量
$12,966,211 交易量
2026-05-31
是
$12,966,211 交易量
$12,966,211 交易量
2026-05-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus prices "No" at 93.5% for Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by May's end, driven by persistent US-Iran naval skirmishes and IRGC patrols that have throttled commercial shipping to a trickle since the March 2026 crisis escalation. Recent incidents, including a French container ship strike on May 5 and intensified dark shipping with 521 RF transmissions but minimal AIS-matched transits on May 8, underscore ongoing risks, leaving over 1,500 vessels stranded. Despite limited US-assisted passages for two merchant ships earlier in May, no diplomatic breakthroughs or de-escalation signals have emerged, with World Bank forecasts pointing to normalization only in late 2026 amid unresolved military tensions and sanctions. A sudden ceasefire or multilateral talks could shift odds, but barriers remain formidable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市場開放時間： Mar 31, 2026, 5:41 PM ET
交易量
$12,966,211結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus prices "No" at 93.5% for Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by May's end, driven by persistent US-Iran naval skirmishes and IRGC patrols that have throttled commercial shipping to a trickle since the March 2026 crisis escalation. Recent incidents, including a French container ship strike on May 5 and intensified dark shipping with 521 RF transmissions but minimal AIS-matched transits on May 8, underscore ongoing risks, leaving over 1,500 vessels stranded. Despite limited US-assisted passages for two merchant ships earlier in May, no diplomatic breakthroughs or de-escalation signals have emerged, with World Bank forecasts pointing to normalization only in late 2026 amid unresolved military tensions and sanctions. A sudden ceasefire or multilateral talks could shift odds, but barriers remain formidable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for May 31, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$12,966,211結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Mar 31, 2026, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices "No" at 93.5% for Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by May's end, driven by persistent US-Iran naval skirmishes and IRGC patrols that have throttled commercial shipping to a trickle since the March 2026 crisis escalation. Recent incidents, including a French container ship strike on May 5 and intensified dark shipping with 521 RF transmissions but minimal AIS-matched transits on May 8, underscore ongoing risks, leaving over 1,500 vessels stranded. Despite limited US-assisted passages for two merchant ships earlier in May, no diplomatic breakthroughs or de-escalation signals have emerged, with World Bank forecasts pointing to normalization only in late 2026 amid unresolved military tensions and sanctions. A sudden ceasefire or multilateral talks could shift odds, but barriers remain formidable.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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