Despite U.S.-mediated temporary ceasefires in April 2026, including a 10-day halt starting April 16 extended multiple times to enable Israel-Lebanon peace talks, ongoing clashes between Israel and Hezbollah persist, casting doubt on a permanent peace deal. Israel insists on Hezbollah's full disarmament and maintains operations in a reinforced security zone south of the Litani River, rejecting demands for complete withdrawal. In the past week alone, Hezbollah launched over 140 drone attacks, prompting IDF strikes that destroyed rocket launchers and eliminated around 15 operatives as recently as May 13. No major diplomatic breakthroughs have emerged, with trader consensus reflecting entrenched positions amid daily military exchanges and no scheduled negotiations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$161,991 交易量
2026-05-31
May 31
3%
$161,991 交易量
May 31
$84,909 交易量
3%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Despite U.S.-mediated temporary ceasefires in April 2026, including a 10-day halt starting April 16 extended multiple times to enable Israel-Lebanon peace talks, ongoing clashes between Israel and Hezbollah persist, casting doubt on a permanent peace deal. Israel insists on Hezbollah's full disarmament and maintains operations in a reinforced security zone south of the Litani River, rejecting demands for complete withdrawal. In the past week alone, Hezbollah launched over 140 drone attacks, prompting IDF strikes that destroyed rocket launchers and eliminated around 15 operatives as recently as May 13. No major diplomatic breakthroughs have emerged, with trader consensus reflecting entrenched positions amid daily military exchanges and no scheduled negotiations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Apr 16, 2026, 7:48 PM ET
交易量
$161,991結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Apr 16, 2026, 7:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Despite U.S.-mediated temporary ceasefires in April 2026, including a 10-day halt starting April 16 extended multiple times to enable Israel-Lebanon peace talks, ongoing clashes between Israel and Hezbollah persist, casting doubt on a permanent peace deal. Israel insists on Hezbollah's full disarmament and maintains operations in a reinforced security zone south of the Litani River, rejecting demands for complete withdrawal. In the past week alone, Hezbollah launched over 140 drone attacks, prompting IDF strikes that destroyed rocket launchers and eliminated around 15 operatives as recently as May 13. No major diplomatic breakthroughs have emerged, with trader consensus reflecting entrenched positions amid daily military exchanges and no scheduled negotiations.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$161,991結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Apr 16, 2026, 7:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite U.S.-mediated temporary ceasefires in April 2026, including a 10-day halt starting April 16 extended multiple times to enable Israel-Lebanon peace talks, ongoing clashes between Israel and Hezbollah persist, casting doubt on a permanent peace deal. Israel insists on Hezbollah's full disarmament and maintains operations in a reinforced security zone south of the Litani River, rejecting demands for complete withdrawal. In the past week alone, Hezbollah launched over 140 drone attacks, prompting IDF strikes that destroyed rocket launchers and eliminated around 15 operatives as recently as May 13. No major diplomatic breakthroughs have emerged, with trader consensus reflecting entrenched positions amid daily military exchanges and no scheduled negotiations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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