Ukrainian forces have sustained a months-long attrition campaign against Russian logistics, air defenses, and energy infrastructure in occupied Crimea, including the “Crimean Switch Off” operation that damaged hundreds of power facilities and strikes on S-400 systems and the Kerch Bridge. These actions, combined with Operation Vivaldi’s recent territorial gains in the Donbas that reversed Russian advances and forced redeployments, have contributed to a modest rise in trader-implied odds for recapture by December 31, 2026, to around 14 percent. Russia retains fortified positions, naval support, and air superiority on the peninsula, making a near-term ground offensive to regain control unlikely without major shifts in Western arms supplies or Russian force posture.