Russia continues to meet wartime manpower needs through a combination of financial incentives for contract soldiers, coercive street-level recruitment, and the still-active 2022 partial mobilization framework, reducing pressure for a new public decree. Recent police raids in Moscow and other cities have detained hundreds of men, issuing summonses or pressuring contracts, while several regions have cut signing bonuses amid falling recruitment numbers. Officials, including President Putin, have repeatedly denied plans for a mass call-up, citing the political risks of renewed panic or emigration. The autumn conscription cycle of 120,000 runs through December under year-round rules, with conscripts barred from combat deployment by official statements, though pressure to convert them into contracts persists. These factors support trader consensus that a formal announcement remains unlikely by early 2027.