Russia's political system remains a consolidated autocracy under President Vladimir Putin, with power centralized through loyal elites, security services, and constitutional arrangements that have eliminated meaningful opposition or term limits challenges. Earlier 2026 reports of tightened Kremlin security and coup fears tied to figures like Sergei Shoigu or Ukrainian drone threats generated market volatility in the spring but produced no verifiable plots or elite defections. Traders assign just a 6.5% chance of a coup attempt this year because economic strains, fuel shortages, and war-related pressures have not translated into coordinated challenges, while internet controls and surveillance continue to limit dissent. Scheduled events through year-end, including parliamentary processes, offer limited scope for disruption under current institutional constraints.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於7% 機率
$118,347 交易量
$118,347 交易量
2026-12-31
7% 機率
$118,347 交易量
$118,347 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's political system remains a consolidated autocracy under President Vladimir Putin, with power centralized through loyal elites, security services, and constitutional arrangements that have eliminated meaningful opposition or term limits challenges. Earlier 2026 reports of tightened Kremlin security and coup fears tied to figures like Sergei Shoigu or Ukrainian drone threats generated market volatility in the spring but produced no verifiable plots or elite defections. Traders assign just a 6.5% chance of a coup attempt this year because economic strains, fuel shortages, and war-related pressures have not translated into coordinated challenges, while internet controls and surveillance continue to limit dissent. Scheduled events through year-end, including parliamentary processes, offer limited scope for disruption under current institutional constraints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
交易量
$118,347結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's political system remains a consolidated autocracy under President Vladimir Putin, with power centralized through loyal elites, security services, and constitutional arrangements that have eliminated meaningful opposition or term limits challenges. Earlier 2026 reports of tightened Kremlin security and coup fears tied to figures like Sergei Shoigu or Ukrainian drone threats generated market volatility in the spring but produced no verifiable plots or elite defections. Traders assign just a 6.5% chance of a coup attempt this year because economic strains, fuel shortages, and war-related pressures have not translated into coordinated challenges, while internet controls and surveillance continue to limit dissent. Scheduled events through year-end, including parliamentary processes, offer limited scope for disruption under current institutional constraints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$118,347結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia's political system remains a consolidated autocracy under President Vladimir Putin, with power centralized through loyal elites, security services, and constitutional arrangements that have eliminated meaningful opposition or term limits challenges. Earlier 2026 reports of tightened Kremlin security and coup fears tied to figures like Sergei Shoigu or Ukrainian drone threats generated market volatility in the spring but produced no verifiable plots or elite defections. Traders assign just a 6.5% chance of a coup attempt this year because economic strains, fuel shortages, and war-related pressures have not translated into coordinated challenges, while internet controls and surveillance continue to limit dissent. Scheduled events through year-end, including parliamentary processes, offer limited scope for disruption under current institutional constraints.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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