NATO's Baltic Air Policing mission continues to monitor frequent drone incursions tied to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, where electronic warfare often diverts Ukrainian strike drones or prompts Russian-origin unmanned aerial vehicles to enter alliance airspace. The most recent incident unfolded overnight on November 10-11, 2026, when multiple drones approached from Belarus, triggering red alerts in Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia; NATO jets scrambled repeatedly but made unsuccessful intercept attempts over Lithuania, with one missile missing and debris recovered near Biržai. Similar spillover events have prompted prior successful downings by NATO aircraft in Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Romania earlier in 2026. Traders assess probabilities around the frequency of confirmed intercepts amid ongoing strikes on Russian targets and alliance rules of engagement that prioritize civilian safety. Scheduled NATO exercises and border surveillance enhancements could influence future outcomes within any resolution window.