**President Zelenskyy's April 14, 2026, rejection of "NATO Light" options in favor of full membership** anchors the 77.5% "No" trader consensus, reflecting Kyiv's unwavering constitutional commitment—amended in 2019—to pursue NATO integration amid stalled peace negotiations. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte reiterated in April that unanimous ally approval remains impossible during active conflict, while a U.S.-mediated three-day ceasefire on May 9-11, 2026, and President Putin's same-day claim that the war is "coming to an end" have intensified diplomacy without reports of Ukrainian concessions on NATO ambitions. Absent binding agreements from February Geneva trilateral talks or subsequent rounds, traders price low odds of any public pledge forgoing accession before the December 31, 2026, resolution deadline.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$99,498 交易量
$99,498 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$99,498 交易量
$99,498 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.**President Zelenskyy's April 14, 2026, rejection of "NATO Light" options in favor of full membership** anchors the 77.5% "No" trader consensus, reflecting Kyiv's unwavering constitutional commitment—amended in 2019—to pursue NATO integration amid stalled peace negotiations. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte reiterated in April that unanimous ally approval remains impossible during active conflict, while a U.S.-mediated three-day ceasefire on May 9-11, 2026, and President Putin's same-day claim that the war is "coming to an end" have intensified diplomacy without reports of Ukrainian concessions on NATO ambitions. Absent binding agreements from February Geneva trilateral talks or subsequent rounds, traders price low odds of any public pledge forgoing accession before the December 31, 2026, resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
市場開放時間： Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ET
交易量
$99,498結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.**President Zelenskyy's April 14, 2026, rejection of "NATO Light" options in favor of full membership** anchors the 77.5% "No" trader consensus, reflecting Kyiv's unwavering constitutional commitment—amended in 2019—to pursue NATO integration amid stalled peace negotiations. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte reiterated in April that unanimous ally approval remains impossible during active conflict, while a U.S.-mediated three-day ceasefire on May 9-11, 2026, and President Putin's same-day claim that the war is "coming to an end" have intensified diplomacy without reports of Ukrainian concessions on NATO ambitions. Absent binding agreements from February Geneva trilateral talks or subsequent rounds, traders price low odds of any public pledge forgoing accession before the December 31, 2026, resolution deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
交易量
$99,498結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 11:56 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**President Zelenskyy's April 14, 2026, rejection of "NATO Light" options in favor of full membership** anchors the 77.5% "No" trader consensus, reflecting Kyiv's unwavering constitutional commitment—amended in 2019—to pursue NATO integration amid stalled peace negotiations. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte reiterated in April that unanimous ally approval remains impossible during active conflict, while a U.S.-mediated three-day ceasefire on May 9-11, 2026, and President Putin's same-day claim that the war is "coming to an end" have intensified diplomacy without reports of Ukrainian concessions on NATO ambitions. Absent binding agreements from February Geneva trilateral talks or subsequent rounds, traders price low odds of any public pledge forgoing accession before the December 31, 2026, resolution deadline.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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