Ukrainian forces maintain control over Kupiansk in Kharkiv oblast, with Russian advances limited to sporadic infiltrations from the north and attempts to establish positions west of the Oskil River. Recent Ukrainian counteroffensives, including operations by the 2nd Khartiia Corps and 3rd Army Corps, have reclaimed territory north of the city near Zapadne, Dvorichna, and Kalynove while shrinking Russian bridgeheads and disrupting logistics. Russian claims of gains, such as near Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi, have not translated into sustained control per independent assessments, and Ukrainian units continue clearing operations against isolated groups. Trader consensus reflects these battlefield trends, with low implied probabilities for full Russian capture by near-term deadlines amid Ukraine’s local defensive and counterattack momentum. Ongoing drone interdiction and infantry engagements on the axis remain key variables.