Recent US-Houthi communications, including Omani-mediated talks in Muscat, have reinforced commitments to the May 2025 ceasefire, with Houthi representatives pledging to avoid attacks on American, Israeli, and commercial vessels while excluding Saudi targets. President Trump has publicly confirmed ongoing direct contact and stated that the Houthis have agreed not to engage US forces. Washington has declined Saudi requests for joint offensive strikes against Houthi positions despite advances on Red Sea ports and strikes targeting Saudi territory, instead providing limited intelligence support. Saudi Arabia has proposed a short-term truce and direct talks. These diplomatic channels and US restraint on escalation amid broader regional tensions with Iran support continued adherence to the existing US-Yemen arrangement in the near term.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於最新
2026-09-22
9月22日
92%
9月25日
88%
9月30日
80%
10月9日
66%
10月31日
71%
$5,019 交易量
9月22日
$2,714 交易量
92%
9月25日
$1,426 交易量
88%
9月30日
$193 交易量
80%
10月9日
$158 交易量
66%
10月31日
$527 交易量
71%
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM Yemen Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of the United States. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify. Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed forces of the United States directly conducted the strike.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Yemen do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Yemen” refers to the terrestrial territory of Yemen, including its internal waters. Yemen’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Yemen as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Yemen Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Yemen and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent US-Houthi communications, including Omani-mediated talks in Muscat, have reinforced commitments to the May 2025 ceasefire, with Houthi representatives pledging to avoid attacks on American, Israeli, and commercial vessels while excluding Saudi targets. President Trump has publicly confirmed ongoing direct contact and stated that the Houthis have agreed not to engage US forces. Washington has declined Saudi requests for joint offensive strikes against Houthi positions despite advances on Red Sea ports and strikes targeting Saudi territory, instead providing limited intelligence support. Saudi Arabia has proposed a short-term truce and direct talks. These diplomatic channels and US restraint on escalation amid broader regional tensions with Iran support continued adherence to the existing US-Yemen arrangement in the near term.
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM Yemen Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of the United States. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify. Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed forces of the United States directly conducted the strike.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Yemen do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Yemen” refers to the terrestrial territory of Yemen, including its internal waters. Yemen’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Yemen as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Yemen Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Yemen and a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of the United States. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify. Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed forces of the United States directly conducted the strike.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Yemen do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Yemen” refers to the terrestrial territory of Yemen, including its internal waters. Yemen’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Yemen as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Yemen Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Yemen and a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Sep 20, 2026, 11:34 AM ET
交易量
$5,019結束日期
2026-10-31市場開放時間
Sep 20, 2026, 11:34 AM ETThis market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM Yemen Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of the United States. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify. Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed forces of the United States directly conducted the strike.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Yemen do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Yemen” refers to the terrestrial territory of Yemen, including its internal waters. Yemen’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Yemen as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Yemen Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Yemen and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent US-Houthi communications, including Omani-mediated talks in Muscat, have reinforced commitments to the May 2025 ceasefire, with Houthi representatives pledging to avoid attacks on American, Israeli, and commercial vessels while excluding Saudi targets. President Trump has publicly confirmed ongoing direct contact and stated that the Houthis have agreed not to engage US forces. Washington has declined Saudi requests for joint offensive strikes against Houthi positions despite advances on Red Sea ports and strikes targeting Saudi territory, instead providing limited intelligence support. Saudi Arabia has proposed a short-term truce and direct talks. These diplomatic channels and US restraint on escalation amid broader regional tensions with Iran support continued adherence to the existing US-Yemen arrangement in the near term.
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM Yemen Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of the United States. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify. Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed forces of the United States directly conducted the strike.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Yemen do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Yemen” refers to the terrestrial territory of Yemen, including its internal waters. Yemen’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Yemen as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Yemen Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Yemen and a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of the United States. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify. Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed forces of the United States directly conducted the strike.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Yemen do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Yemen” refers to the terrestrial territory of Yemen, including its internal waters. Yemen’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Yemen as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Yemen Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Yemen and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$5,019結束日期
2026-10-31市場開放時間
Sep 20, 2026, 11:34 AM ETRecent US-Houthi communications, including Omani-mediated talks in Muscat, have reinforced commitments to the May 2025 ceasefire, with Houthi representatives pledging to avoid attacks on American, Israeli, and commercial vessels while excluding Saudi targets. President Trump has publicly confirmed ongoing direct contact and stated that the Houthis have agreed not to engage US forces. Washington has declined Saudi requests for joint offensive strikes against Houthi positions despite advances on Red Sea ports and strikes targeting Saudi territory, instead providing limited intelligence support. Saudi Arabia has proposed a short-term truce and direct talks. These diplomatic channels and US restraint on escalation amid broader regional tensions with Iran support continued adherence to the existing US-Yemen arrangement in the near term.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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Frequently Asked Questions