Recent Houthi missile and drone strikes on Saudi oil infrastructure, airports, and military sites near the Yemen border, including claimed hits on the East-West pipeline and Sharurah airport, have intensified trader focus on escalation risks without evidence of ground incursions. Saudi-led coalition forces have intercepted most projectiles while conducting airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen, where ground fighting has resumed around Taiz and other areas. The November 2026 UN Security Council sanctions extension and ongoing Red Sea shipping pressures tied to the broader Iran-related conflict continue to shape assessments. Market odds reflect the low likelihood of a conventional border crossing given Saudi air defenses and the Houthis’ reliance on long-range asymmetric tactics rather than territorial advances.