Ongoing indirect talks mediated by Qatar have produced modest progress in November 2026, with Iran reviewing proposals that include limits on its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief and an end to the U.S. naval blockade. President Trump has signaled an imminent decision on whether to pursue a deal or authorize additional strikes, while Iranian officials maintain demands for asset releases, compensation, and force withdrawals. A draft proposal circulated in late October and early November, but both sides continue exchanging threats amid low-level maritime incidents. These diplomatic channels and military posture assessments directly shape trader assessments of whether any ceasefire arrangement can hold through the market’s specified date.