US-brokered diplomacy remains the central driver of trader sentiment on any near-term Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement, with talks stalled since early 2026 amid competing priorities including the US-Iran conflict. Ukraine recently conveyed fresh proposals to Washington and floated a Black Sea truce to protect grain exports, but Russia rejected the idea and reiterated that only a comprehensive settlement addressing territorial claims, security guarantees, and sanctions would suffice. Ongoing drone strikes, Ukrainian territorial gains in the Oleksandrivskyi sector, and Russian parliamentary elections next month continue to shape battlefield and diplomatic dynamics. Upcoming visits by US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner represent the nearest scheduled catalyst that could shift probabilities if concrete progress emerges.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$5,910,597 交易量
2026-10-31
10月31日
11%
8月31日
3%
12月31日
27%
$5,910,597 交易量
10月31日
$846,502 交易量
11%
8月31日
$388,447 交易量
3%
12月31日
$2,138,316 交易量
27%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.US-brokered diplomacy remains the central driver of trader sentiment on any near-term Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement, with talks stalled since early 2026 amid competing priorities including the US-Iran conflict. Ukraine recently conveyed fresh proposals to Washington and floated a Black Sea truce to protect grain exports, but Russia rejected the idea and reiterated that only a comprehensive settlement addressing territorial claims, security guarantees, and sanctions would suffice. Ongoing drone strikes, Ukrainian territorial gains in the Oleksandrivskyi sector, and Russian parliamentary elections next month continue to shape battlefield and diplomatic dynamics. Upcoming visits by US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner represent the nearest scheduled catalyst that could shift probabilities if concrete progress emerges.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
交易量
$5,910,597結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.US-brokered diplomacy remains the central driver of trader sentiment on any near-term Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement, with talks stalled since early 2026 amid competing priorities including the US-Iran conflict. Ukraine recently conveyed fresh proposals to Washington and floated a Black Sea truce to protect grain exports, but Russia rejected the idea and reiterated that only a comprehensive settlement addressing territorial claims, security guarantees, and sanctions would suffice. Ongoing drone strikes, Ukrainian territorial gains in the Oleksandrivskyi sector, and Russian parliamentary elections next month continue to shape battlefield and diplomatic dynamics. Upcoming visits by US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner represent the nearest scheduled catalyst that could shift probabilities if concrete progress emerges.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$5,910,597結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-brokered diplomacy remains the central driver of trader sentiment on any near-term Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement, with talks stalled since early 2026 amid competing priorities including the US-Iran conflict. Ukraine recently conveyed fresh proposals to Washington and floated a Black Sea truce to protect grain exports, but Russia rejected the idea and reiterated that only a comprehensive settlement addressing territorial claims, security guarantees, and sanctions would suffice. Ongoing drone strikes, Ukrainian territorial gains in the Oleksandrivskyi sector, and Russian parliamentary elections next month continue to shape battlefield and diplomatic dynamics. Upcoming visits by US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner represent the nearest scheduled catalyst that could shift probabilities if concrete progress emerges.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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