Russia's insistence on retaining or expanding control over occupied Ukrainian territories while rejecting any freeze along current lines continues to block progress toward a ceasefire agreement, reinforced by statements from officials including Lavrov dismissing near-term talks. Ukraine's mid-August 2026 delivery of U.S.-mediated proposals sought to revive stalled diplomacy but met maximalist Russian demands and no reciprocal flexibility, echoing the collapse of the May 2026 three-day truce. Ukrainian military intelligence assessed on August 18 that battlefield conditions show no Russian readiness for negotiations or an agreement by year-end, amid ongoing offensives and strikes. U.S. diplomatic signals of renewed engagement and potential upcoming talks face the same core gaps over territory and security guarantees that have defined prior trilateral meetings.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$6,021,682 交易量
2026-10-31
10月31日
9%
8月31日
2%
12月31日
21%
2027年3月31日
41%
2027年6月30日
56%
$6,021,682 交易量
10月31日
$861,487 交易量
9%
8月31日
$463,788 交易量
2%
12月31日
$2,154,771 交易量
21%
2027年3月31日
$3,479 交易量
41%
2027年6月30日
$825 交易量
56%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's insistence on retaining or expanding control over occupied Ukrainian territories while rejecting any freeze along current lines continues to block progress toward a ceasefire agreement, reinforced by statements from officials including Lavrov dismissing near-term talks. Ukraine's mid-August 2026 delivery of U.S.-mediated proposals sought to revive stalled diplomacy but met maximalist Russian demands and no reciprocal flexibility, echoing the collapse of the May 2026 three-day truce. Ukrainian military intelligence assessed on August 18 that battlefield conditions show no Russian readiness for negotiations or an agreement by year-end, amid ongoing offensives and strikes. U.S. diplomatic signals of renewed engagement and potential upcoming talks face the same core gaps over territory and security guarantees that have defined prior trilateral meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
交易量
$6,021,682結束日期
2027-07-01市場開放時間
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's insistence on retaining or expanding control over occupied Ukrainian territories while rejecting any freeze along current lines continues to block progress toward a ceasefire agreement, reinforced by statements from officials including Lavrov dismissing near-term talks. Ukraine's mid-August 2026 delivery of U.S.-mediated proposals sought to revive stalled diplomacy but met maximalist Russian demands and no reciprocal flexibility, echoing the collapse of the May 2026 three-day truce. Ukrainian military intelligence assessed on August 18 that battlefield conditions show no Russian readiness for negotiations or an agreement by year-end, amid ongoing offensives and strikes. U.S. diplomatic signals of renewed engagement and potential upcoming talks face the same core gaps over territory and security guarantees that have defined prior trilateral meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$6,021,682結束日期
2027-07-01市場開放時間
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia's insistence on retaining or expanding control over occupied Ukrainian territories while rejecting any freeze along current lines continues to block progress toward a ceasefire agreement, reinforced by statements from officials including Lavrov dismissing near-term talks. Ukraine's mid-August 2026 delivery of U.S.-mediated proposals sought to revive stalled diplomacy but met maximalist Russian demands and no reciprocal flexibility, echoing the collapse of the May 2026 three-day truce. Ukrainian military intelligence assessed on August 18 that battlefield conditions show no Russian readiness for negotiations or an agreement by year-end, amid ongoing offensives and strikes. U.S. diplomatic signals of renewed engagement and potential upcoming talks face the same core gaps over territory and security guarantees that have defined prior trilateral meetings.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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