U.S.-mediated diplomatic efforts produced a three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine from May 9 to 11, 2026, that both governments publicly confirmed and paired with a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange. The pause coincided with Russia’s Victory Day commemorations and marked the first mutual halt in kinetic operations in months, following earlier trilateral meetings in Geneva that had stalled amid broader regional tensions. Although Kremlin officials described any comprehensive settlement as still distant, the formal commitments satisfy the criteria for a ceasefire agreement ahead of the May 31 resolution window. Traders therefore assign near-certain probability to a positive outcome by the deadline, while acknowledging that violations, renewed escalation, or disputes over implementation could still shift assessments before month-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$577,180 交易量
2026-12-31
5月31日
3%
6月30日
12%
10月31日
37%
12月31日
49%
$577,180 交易量
5月31日
$245,240 交易量
3%
6月30日
$190,732 交易量
12%
10月31日
$48,392 交易量
37%
12月31日
$92,974 交易量
49%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.U.S.-mediated diplomatic efforts produced a three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine from May 9 to 11, 2026, that both governments publicly confirmed and paired with a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange. The pause coincided with Russia’s Victory Day commemorations and marked the first mutual halt in kinetic operations in months, following earlier trilateral meetings in Geneva that had stalled amid broader regional tensions. Although Kremlin officials described any comprehensive settlement as still distant, the formal commitments satisfy the criteria for a ceasefire agreement ahead of the May 31 resolution window. Traders therefore assign near-certain probability to a positive outcome by the deadline, while acknowledging that violations, renewed escalation, or disputes over implementation could still shift assessments before month-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
交易量
$577,180結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.U.S.-mediated diplomatic efforts produced a three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine from May 9 to 11, 2026, that both governments publicly confirmed and paired with a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange. The pause coincided with Russia’s Victory Day commemorations and marked the first mutual halt in kinetic operations in months, following earlier trilateral meetings in Geneva that had stalled amid broader regional tensions. Although Kremlin officials described any comprehensive settlement as still distant, the formal commitments satisfy the criteria for a ceasefire agreement ahead of the May 31 resolution window. Traders therefore assign near-certain probability to a positive outcome by the deadline, while acknowledging that violations, renewed escalation, or disputes over implementation could still shift assessments before month-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$577,180結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...U.S.-mediated diplomatic efforts produced a three-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine from May 9 to 11, 2026, that both governments publicly confirmed and paired with a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner exchange. The pause coincided with Russia’s Victory Day commemorations and marked the first mutual halt in kinetic operations in months, following earlier trilateral meetings in Geneva that had stalled amid broader regional tensions. Although Kremlin officials described any comprehensive settlement as still distant, the formal commitments satisfy the criteria for a ceasefire agreement ahead of the May 31 resolution window. Traders therefore assign near-certain probability to a positive outcome by the deadline, while acknowledging that violations, renewed escalation, or disputes over implementation could still shift assessments before month-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions