Ongoing hostilities and stalled diplomacy explain the near-certain trader consensus against a comprehensive Ukraine-Russia peace agreement by late August. Core disputes over territorial control, security guarantees, and neutrality remain unresolved following earlier 2026 rounds of talks that produced no breakthroughs. The Kremlin stated in mid-July that no immediate prospects exist for resuming negotiations, with positions diverging sharply on Russian demands for concessions and Ukrainian requirements for lasting protections. Recent brief ceasefires for holidays and prisoner exchanges have not translated into broader diplomatic momentum. A signed deal within the narrow window would require rapid third-party mediation yielding mutual compromises on sovereignty and security—developments that have not materialized despite sustained U.S. engagement.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$228,775 交易量
$228,775 交易量
2026-08-31
是
$228,775 交易量
$228,775 交易量
2026-08-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing hostilities and stalled diplomacy explain the near-certain trader consensus against a comprehensive Ukraine-Russia peace agreement by late August. Core disputes over territorial control, security guarantees, and neutrality remain unresolved following earlier 2026 rounds of talks that produced no breakthroughs. The Kremlin stated in mid-July that no immediate prospects exist for resuming negotiations, with positions diverging sharply on Russian demands for concessions and Ukrainian requirements for lasting protections. Recent brief ceasefires for holidays and prisoner exchanges have not translated into broader diplomatic momentum. A signed deal within the narrow window would require rapid third-party mediation yielding mutual compromises on sovereignty and security—developments that have not materialized despite sustained U.S. engagement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
交易量
$228,775結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing hostilities and stalled diplomacy explain the near-certain trader consensus against a comprehensive Ukraine-Russia peace agreement by late August. Core disputes over territorial control, security guarantees, and neutrality remain unresolved following earlier 2026 rounds of talks that produced no breakthroughs. The Kremlin stated in mid-July that no immediate prospects exist for resuming negotiations, with positions diverging sharply on Russian demands for concessions and Ukrainian requirements for lasting protections. Recent brief ceasefires for holidays and prisoner exchanges have not translated into broader diplomatic momentum. A signed deal within the narrow window would require rapid third-party mediation yielding mutual compromises on sovereignty and security—developments that have not materialized despite sustained U.S. engagement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$228,775結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing hostilities and stalled diplomacy explain the near-certain trader consensus against a comprehensive Ukraine-Russia peace agreement by late August. Core disputes over territorial control, security guarantees, and neutrality remain unresolved following earlier 2026 rounds of talks that produced no breakthroughs. The Kremlin stated in mid-July that no immediate prospects exist for resuming negotiations, with positions diverging sharply on Russian demands for concessions and Ukrainian requirements for lasting protections. Recent brief ceasefires for holidays and prisoner exchanges have not translated into broader diplomatic momentum. A signed deal within the narrow window would require rapid third-party mediation yielding mutual compromises on sovereignty and security—developments that have not materialized despite sustained U.S. engagement.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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Frequently Asked Questions