Traders assign the highest implied probability to UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer exiting office before 2027 due to sustained domestic pressures, including weak polling trends among key voter blocs and legislative hurdles in managing fiscal policy and coalition dynamics within the Labour Party. Colombia President Gustavo Petro follows closely, reflecting uncertainty around his administration's economic reforms and the approach of the 2026 presidential contest under the country's constitutional term limits. Lower probabilities for figures such as Cuba's Miguel Díaz-Canel and others align with established patterns of incumbency continuity in their respective systems, where fewer immediate electoral or institutional catalysts appear likely to trigger early removal. These assessments incorporate historical base rates for leadership turnover in parliamentary and presidential contexts.