Nithya Raman holds a trader consensus edge in the Los Angeles mayoral runoff due to a mid-September UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll showing her at 39% support among likely voters compared with 28% for incumbent Karen Bass, alongside 33% undecided. Bass faces elevated unfavorability ratings near 63%, tied in part to public assessments of the city’s response to the 2025 Palisades fire and persistent challenges on homelessness, housing costs, and public safety. Raman, a city councilmember backed by the local Democratic Socialists of America chapter, advanced from the June primary where Bass led narrowly before Spencer Pratt was eliminated. Mail ballots begin distribution in early October ahead of the November 3 election, with an October 13 debate scheduled to address these issues and potentially influence remaining undecided voters.