Recent polling averages place both the Alaska and Texas Senate contests in toss-up territory, with margins frequently inside three points. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico holds narrow leads or statistical ties over Republican Ken Paxton across multiple September surveys, reflecting shifting voter coalitions in a large, demographically diverse state and an open seat after the Republican primary. Alaska’s matchup between incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan and Democrat Mary Peltola also remains tight, though ranked-choice voting and a smaller electorate can compress final margins once preferences are redistributed. Traders assign Texas the higher probability of producing the narrower certified result, citing consistent sub-three-point polling spreads and greater potential for last-minute turnout or third-party effects to decide the outcome.