Recent polling and forecasts show multiple 2026 Senate contests in Republican-held seats, including Texas, Ohio, Maine, Michigan, Alaska, and Iowa, tightening into or near single-digit margins amid President Trump’s sub-40% approval ratings tied to persistent inflation, high energy costs, and trade frictions. Democratic candidates have posted gains in these states, with several surveys placing races within 5 points or less, while a handful of Democratic-held seats such as Minnesota also appear closer than expected. Cook Political Report currently rates seven races as toss-ups, reflecting an expanded battlefield driven by the national environment rather than candidate-specific events. With seven weeks until the November 3 election and heavy ad spending underway, late shifts in turnout or additional polling could alter which specific contests finish within the 5% threshold.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$64,438 交易量
2026-11-03
德克薩斯州
83%
阿拉斯加
72%
Kansas
69%
密歇根州
65%
愛荷華州
62%
俄亥俄州（特別選舉）
56%
緬因州
48%
內布拉斯加州
46%
新罕布夏州
38%
South Carolina
43%
北卡羅來納州
28%
佛羅里達（特別）
25%
喬治亞州
21%
明尼蘇達州
20%
新墨西哥州
13%
蒙大拿州
9%
科羅拉多州
4%
維吉尼亞州
3%
$64,438 交易量
德克薩斯州
$7,132 交易量
83%
阿拉斯加
$2,789 交易量
72%
Kansas
$556 交易量
69%
密歇根州
$2,743 交易量
65%
愛荷華州
$5,657 交易量
62%
俄亥俄州（特別選舉）
$3,967 交易量
56%
緬因州
$1,119 交易量
48%
內布拉斯加州
$3,719 交易量
46%
新罕布夏州
$2,402 交易量
38%
South Carolina
$109 交易量
43%
北卡羅來納州
$5,817 交易量
28%
佛羅里達（特別）
$2,450 交易量
25%
喬治亞州
$2,057 交易量
21%
明尼蘇達州
$10,319 交易量
20%
新墨西哥州
$6,665 交易量
13%
蒙大拿州
$2,990 交易量
9%
科羅拉多州
$2,599 交易量
4%
維吉尼亞州
$1,344 交易量
3%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling and forecasts show multiple 2026 Senate contests in Republican-held seats, including Texas, Ohio, Maine, Michigan, Alaska, and Iowa, tightening into or near single-digit margins amid President Trump’s sub-40% approval ratings tied to persistent inflation, high energy costs, and trade frictions. Democratic candidates have posted gains in these states, with several surveys placing races within 5 points or less, while a handful of Democratic-held seats such as Minnesota also appear closer than expected. Cook Political Report currently rates seven races as toss-ups, reflecting an expanded battlefield driven by the national environment rather than candidate-specific events. With seven weeks until the November 3 election and heavy ad spending underway, late shifts in turnout or additional polling could alter which specific contests finish within the 5% threshold.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
交易量
$64,438結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETThe 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling and forecasts show multiple 2026 Senate contests in Republican-held seats, including Texas, Ohio, Maine, Michigan, Alaska, and Iowa, tightening into or near single-digit margins amid President Trump’s sub-40% approval ratings tied to persistent inflation, high energy costs, and trade frictions. Democratic candidates have posted gains in these states, with several surveys placing races within 5 points or less, while a handful of Democratic-held seats such as Minnesota also appear closer than expected. Cook Political Report currently rates seven races as toss-ups, reflecting an expanded battlefield driven by the national environment rather than candidate-specific events. With seven weeks until the November 3 election and heavy ad spending underway, late shifts in turnout or additional polling could alter which specific contests finish within the 5% threshold.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$64,438結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETRecent polling and forecasts show multiple 2026 Senate contests in Republican-held seats, including Texas, Ohio, Maine, Michigan, Alaska, and Iowa, tightening into or near single-digit margins amid President Trump’s sub-40% approval ratings tied to persistent inflation, high energy costs, and trade frictions. Democratic candidates have posted gains in these states, with several surveys placing races within 5 points or less, while a handful of Democratic-held seats such as Minnesota also appear closer than expected. Cook Political Report currently rates seven races as toss-ups, reflecting an expanded battlefield driven by the national environment rather than candidate-specific events. With seven weeks until the November 3 election and heavy ad spending underway, late shifts in turnout or additional polling could alter which specific contests finish within the 5% threshold.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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Frequently Asked Questions