Several 2026 Senate races remain highly competitive with polling margins frequently inside five points, reflecting a national environment where Democrats hold a generic ballot advantage of roughly seven to eight points. Key contests likely to decide chamber control include open or retiring-incumbent seats in Michigan, New Hampshire, and North Carolina, plus Republican-held seats in Maine, Ohio, Texas, Alaska, and Iowa. Recent surveys show Democratic candidates leading or within striking distance in Texas, Ohio, and Michigan, while Alaska and Maine stay within a few points. With primaries complete and seven weeks until the November 3 election, late-cycle polling shifts, turnout in battleground states, and any national economic or approval trends could tighten or widen these margins further. Trader consensus on individual race closeness tracks these narrow polling spreads and the overall partisan environment.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$64,033 交易量
2026-11-03
德克薩斯州
83%
阿拉斯加
72%
Kansas
69%
密歇根州
65%
愛荷華州
62%
俄亥俄州（特別選舉）
56%
內布拉斯加州
46%
新罕布夏州
38%
South Carolina
41%
北卡羅來納州
27%
佛羅里達（特別）
24%
緬因州
41%
喬治亞州
20%
明尼蘇達州
17%
新墨西哥州
13%
蒙大拿州
9%
維吉尼亞州
5%
科羅拉多州
4%
$64,033 交易量
德克薩斯州
$7,132 交易量
83%
阿拉斯加
$2,789 交易量
72%
Kansas
$556 交易量
69%
密歇根州
$2,743 交易量
65%
愛荷華州
$5,657 交易量
62%
俄亥俄州（特別選舉）
$3,967 交易量
56%
內布拉斯加州
$3,719 交易量
46%
新罕布夏州
$2,402 交易量
38%
South Carolina
$109 交易量
41%
北卡羅來納州
$5,817 交易量
27%
佛羅里達（特別）
$2,450 交易量
24%
緬因州
$1,119 交易量
41%
喬治亞州
$2,057 交易量
20%
明尼蘇達州
$9,915 交易量
17%
新墨西哥州
$6,665 交易量
13%
蒙大拿州
$2,990 交易量
9%
維吉尼亞州
$1,344 交易量
5%
科羅拉多州
$2,599 交易量
4%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 Senate races remain highly competitive with polling margins frequently inside five points, reflecting a national environment where Democrats hold a generic ballot advantage of roughly seven to eight points. Key contests likely to decide chamber control include open or retiring-incumbent seats in Michigan, New Hampshire, and North Carolina, plus Republican-held seats in Maine, Ohio, Texas, Alaska, and Iowa. Recent surveys show Democratic candidates leading or within striking distance in Texas, Ohio, and Michigan, while Alaska and Maine stay within a few points. With primaries complete and seven weeks until the November 3 election, late-cycle polling shifts, turnout in battleground states, and any national economic or approval trends could tighten or widen these margins further. Trader consensus on individual race closeness tracks these narrow polling spreads and the overall partisan environment.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
交易量
$64,033結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETThe 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 Senate races remain highly competitive with polling margins frequently inside five points, reflecting a national environment where Democrats hold a generic ballot advantage of roughly seven to eight points. Key contests likely to decide chamber control include open or retiring-incumbent seats in Michigan, New Hampshire, and North Carolina, plus Republican-held seats in Maine, Ohio, Texas, Alaska, and Iowa. Recent surveys show Democratic candidates leading or within striking distance in Texas, Ohio, and Michigan, while Alaska and Maine stay within a few points. With primaries complete and seven weeks until the November 3 election, late-cycle polling shifts, turnout in battleground states, and any national economic or approval trends could tighten or widen these margins further. Trader consensus on individual race closeness tracks these narrow polling spreads and the overall partisan environment.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$64,033結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETSeveral 2026 Senate races remain highly competitive with polling margins frequently inside five points, reflecting a national environment where Democrats hold a generic ballot advantage of roughly seven to eight points. Key contests likely to decide chamber control include open or retiring-incumbent seats in Michigan, New Hampshire, and North Carolina, plus Republican-held seats in Maine, Ohio, Texas, Alaska, and Iowa. Recent surveys show Democratic candidates leading or within striking distance in Texas, Ohio, and Michigan, while Alaska and Maine stay within a few points. With primaries complete and seven weeks until the November 3 election, late-cycle polling shifts, turnout in battleground states, and any national economic or approval trends could tighten or widen these margins further. Trader consensus on individual race closeness tracks these narrow polling spreads and the overall partisan environment.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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Frequently Asked Questions