Several 2026 Senate races remain closely contested seven weeks before the November 3 election, with polling aggregates and prediction markets identifying Ohio’s special election, Michigan, Maine, Alaska, Iowa, and Texas as the strongest candidates for margins of 5 percent or less. Open Democratic seats in Michigan and New Hampshire, plus Republican retirements in North Carolina, have produced competitive matchups featuring well-known candidates such as Roy Cooper and Abdul El-Sayed. Recent surveys show narrow leads or ties in these states amid a national environment where Democrats hold an edge on the generic ballot. Heavy late-cycle advertising by Republican groups in Michigan, Ohio, and Alaska, combined with ongoing primaries and candidate recruitment, continues to shape turnout expectations and keep several battlegrounds within striking distance of a sub-5-point result.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$65,689 交易量
2026-11-03
德克薩斯州
80%
阿拉斯加
70%
愛荷華州
69%
Kansas
70%
密歇根州
57%
俄亥俄州（特別選舉）
56%
內布拉斯加州
44%
新罕布夏州
37%
South Carolina
43%
北卡羅來納州
28%
佛羅里達（特別）
25%
緬因州
41%
明尼蘇達州
23%
喬治亞州
20%
新墨西哥州
13%
蒙大拿州
11%
維吉尼亞州
3%
科羅拉多州
3%
$65,689 交易量
德克薩斯州
$7,420 交易量
80%
阿拉斯加
$2,853 交易量
70%
愛荷華州
$5,840 交易量
69%
Kansas
$571 交易量
70%
密歇根州
$3,054 交易量
57%
俄亥俄州（特別選舉）
$3,967 交易量
56%
內布拉斯加州
$3,809 交易量
44%
新罕布夏州
$2,422 交易量
37%
South Carolina
$109 交易量
43%
北卡羅來納州
$5,817 交易量
28%
佛羅里達（特別）
$2,450 交易量
25%
緬因州
$1,119 交易量
41%
明尼蘇達州
$10,399 交易量
23%
喬治亞州
$2,057 交易量
20%
新墨西哥州
$6,665 交易量
13%
蒙大拿州
$3,190 交易量
11%
維吉尼亞州
$1,344 交易量
3%
科羅拉多州
$2,599 交易量
3%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 Senate races remain closely contested seven weeks before the November 3 election, with polling aggregates and prediction markets identifying Ohio’s special election, Michigan, Maine, Alaska, Iowa, and Texas as the strongest candidates for margins of 5 percent or less. Open Democratic seats in Michigan and New Hampshire, plus Republican retirements in North Carolina, have produced competitive matchups featuring well-known candidates such as Roy Cooper and Abdul El-Sayed. Recent surveys show narrow leads or ties in these states amid a national environment where Democrats hold an edge on the generic ballot. Heavy late-cycle advertising by Republican groups in Michigan, Ohio, and Alaska, combined with ongoing primaries and candidate recruitment, continues to shape turnout expectations and keep several battlegrounds within striking distance of a sub-5-point result.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
交易量
$65,689結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETThe 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Several 2026 Senate races remain closely contested seven weeks before the November 3 election, with polling aggregates and prediction markets identifying Ohio’s special election, Michigan, Maine, Alaska, Iowa, and Texas as the strongest candidates for margins of 5 percent or less. Open Democratic seats in Michigan and New Hampshire, plus Republican retirements in North Carolina, have produced competitive matchups featuring well-known candidates such as Roy Cooper and Abdul El-Sayed. Recent surveys show narrow leads or ties in these states amid a national environment where Democrats hold an edge on the generic ballot. Heavy late-cycle advertising by Republican groups in Michigan, Ohio, and Alaska, combined with ongoing primaries and candidate recruitment, continues to shape turnout expectations and keep several battlegrounds within striking distance of a sub-5-point result.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$65,689結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jul 29, 2026, 2:38 PM ETSeveral 2026 Senate races remain closely contested seven weeks before the November 3 election, with polling aggregates and prediction markets identifying Ohio’s special election, Michigan, Maine, Alaska, Iowa, and Texas as the strongest candidates for margins of 5 percent or less. Open Democratic seats in Michigan and New Hampshire, plus Republican retirements in North Carolina, have produced competitive matchups featuring well-known candidates such as Roy Cooper and Abdul El-Sayed. Recent surveys show narrow leads or ties in these states amid a national environment where Democrats hold an edge on the generic ballot. Heavy late-cycle advertising by Republican groups in Michigan, Ohio, and Alaska, combined with ongoing primaries and candidate recruitment, continues to shape turnout expectations and keep several battlegrounds within striking distance of a sub-5-point result.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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Frequently Asked Questions