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icon for Jon Ossoff或Raphael Warnock在2026年退出參議院？
政治·參議院

Jon Ossoff或Raphael Warnock在2026年退出參議院？

icon for Jon Ossoff或Raphael Warnock在2026年退出參議院？
政治·參議院

Jon Ossoff或Raphael Warnock在2026年退出參議院？

是

3% 機率
Polymarket
最新

是

3% 機率
Polymarket
最新
This market will resolve as Yes if either Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock formally ceases to hold the position of United States Senator by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve as "No." Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, expulsion, or other means all qualify. Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be statements from Jon Ossoff, Raphael Warnock, the offices of Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock, and the United States Senate.Both Georgia Democratic senators face structurally favorable conditions for remaining in office through 2026. Jon Ossoff, the only Democratic incumbent defending a seat in a state carried by President Trump in 2024, holds consistent leads in polling averages against Republican nominee Mike Collins, with ratings from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic across forecasters. His strong fundraising and primary win have positioned him as the frontrunner ahead of the November 3 general election. Raphael Warnock’s term extends to 2028, with no retirement signals or vacancies reported. No credible reports indicate health issues, scandals, or resignation plans for either senator. Trader consensus at 97% on “No” reflects these incumbency advantages and the absence of disruptive developments, though late-campaign shifts, turnout surprises, or unforeseen personal events could still alter outcomes before year-end.

This market will resolve as Yes if either Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock formally ceases to hold the position of United States Senator by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve as "No."

Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, expulsion, or other means all qualify.

Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be statements from Jon Ossoff, Raphael Warnock, the offices of Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock, and the United States Senate.This market will resolve as Yes if either Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock formally ceases to hold the position of United States Senator by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve as "No." Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, expulsion, or other means all qualify. Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be statements from Jon Ossoff, Raphael Warnock, the offices of Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock, and the United States Senate.
交易量
$1,184
結束日期
2027-01-01
市場開放時間
Jul 14, 2026, 7:38 PM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve as Yes if either Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock formally ceases to hold the position of United States Senator by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve as "No." Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, expulsion, or other means all qualify. Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be statements from Jon Ossoff, Raphael Warnock, the offices of Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock, and the United States Senate.Both Georgia Democratic senators face structurally favorable conditions for remaining in office through 2026. Jon Ossoff, the only Democratic incumbent defending a seat in a state carried by President Trump in 2024, holds consistent leads in polling averages against Republican nominee Mike Collins, with ratings from Lean Democratic to Likely Democratic across forecasters. His strong fundraising and primary win have positioned him as the frontrunner ahead of the November 3 general election. Raphael Warnock’s term extends to 2028, with no retirement signals or vacancies reported. No credible reports indicate health issues, scandals, or resignation plans for either senator. Trader consensus at 97% on “No” reflects these incumbency advantages and the absence of disruptive developments, though late-campaign shifts, turnout surprises, or unforeseen personal events could still alter outcomes before year-end.

This market will resolve as Yes if either Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock formally ceases to hold the position of United States Senator by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve as "No."

Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, expulsion, or other means all qualify.

Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be statements from Jon Ossoff, Raphael Warnock, the offices of Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock, and the United States Senate.This market will resolve as Yes if either Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock formally ceases to hold the position of United States Senator by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve as "No." Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, expulsion, or other means all qualify. Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be statements from Jon Ossoff, Raphael Warnock, the offices of Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock, and the United States Senate.
交易量
$1,184
結束日期
2027-01-01
市場開放時間
Jul 14, 2026, 7:38 PM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Jon Ossoff或Raphael Warnock在2026年退出參議院？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2026年，Jon Ossoff或Raphael Warnock會離開參議院嗎？" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 3¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 3% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Jon Ossoff或Raphael Warnock在2026年退出參議院？" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 14, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Jon Ossoff或Raphael Warnock在2026年退出參議院？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Jon Ossoff或Raphael Warnock在2026年退出參議院？" is "2026年，Jon Ossoff或Raphael Warnock會離開參議院嗎？" at just 3%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Jon Ossoff或Raphael Warnock在2026年退出參議院？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.