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icon for Jon Ossoff或Raphael Warnock在2026年退出參議院？
政治·喬治亞

Jon Ossoff或Raphael Warnock在2026年退出參議院？

icon for Jon Ossoff或Raphael Warnock在2026年退出參議院？
政治·喬治亞

Jon Ossoff或Raphael Warnock在2026年退出參議院？

是

32% 機率
Polymarket
最新

是

32% 機率
Polymarket
最新
This market will resolve as Yes if either Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock formally ceases to hold the position of United States Senator by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve as "No." Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, expulsion, or other means all qualify. Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be statements from Jon Ossoff, Raphael Warnock, the offices of Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock, and the United States Senate.**Recent polling and race ratings show Jon Ossoff holding a modest but consistent lead in his 2026 re-election bid against Republican challenger Mike Collins, while Raphael Warnock faces no Senate contest until 2028.** This positions the trader consensus behind “No” (neither senator out after the cycle) at 56%. Ossoff’s incumbency, combined with Georgia’s recent Democratic Senate wins in 2020–2022 and current surveys (such as Fox News showing him ahead by double digits and other polls in the mid-40s to low-50s range), supports the slight edge for retention. Warnock’s seat is not on the ballot, removing any near-term electoral risk for him. The race remains competitive in a state Trump carried in 2024, with turnout, candidate positioning, and any late-cycle developments in the battleground likely to influence final margins before November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve as Yes if either Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock formally ceases to hold the position of United States Senator by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve as "No."

Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, expulsion, or other means all qualify.

Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be statements from Jon Ossoff, Raphael Warnock, the offices of Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock, and the United States Senate.
交易量
$0
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jul 14, 2026, 7:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve as Yes if either Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock formally ceases to hold the position of United States Senator by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve as "No." Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, expulsion, or other means all qualify. Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be statements from Jon Ossoff, Raphael Warnock, the offices of Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock, and the United States Senate.
This market will resolve as Yes if either Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock formally ceases to hold the position of United States Senator by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve as "No." Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, expulsion, or other means all qualify. Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be statements from Jon Ossoff, Raphael Warnock, the offices of Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock, and the United States Senate.**Recent polling and race ratings show Jon Ossoff holding a modest but consistent lead in his 2026 re-election bid against Republican challenger Mike Collins, while Raphael Warnock faces no Senate contest until 2028.** This positions the trader consensus behind “No” (neither senator out after the cycle) at 56%. Ossoff’s incumbency, combined with Georgia’s recent Democratic Senate wins in 2020–2022 and current surveys (such as Fox News showing him ahead by double digits and other polls in the mid-40s to low-50s range), supports the slight edge for retention. Warnock’s seat is not on the ballot, removing any near-term electoral risk for him. The race remains competitive in a state Trump carried in 2024, with turnout, candidate positioning, and any late-cycle developments in the battleground likely to influence final margins before November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve as Yes if either Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock formally ceases to hold the position of United States Senator by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve as "No."

Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, expulsion, or other means all qualify.

Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be statements from Jon Ossoff, Raphael Warnock, the offices of Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock, and the United States Senate.
交易量
$0
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jul 14, 2026, 7:38 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve as Yes if either Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock formally ceases to hold the position of United States Senator by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve as "No." Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock must formally cease to hold the specified position in accordance with the laws, rules, or procedures applicable to that position. Announcements of a future departure do not qualify. The means of departure do not impact settlement; resignation, removal, expulsion, or other means all qualify. Temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be statements from Jon Ossoff, Raphael Warnock, the offices of Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock, and the United States Senate.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Jon Ossoff或Raphael Warnock在2026年退出參議院？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2026年，Jon Ossoff或Raphael Warnock會離開參議院嗎？" at 33%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 33¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 33% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Jon Ossoff或Raphael Warnock在2026年退出參議院？" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 14, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Jon Ossoff或Raphael Warnock在2026年退出參議院？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Jon Ossoff或Raphael Warnock在2026年退出參議院？" is "2026年，Jon Ossoff或Raphael Warnock會離開參議院嗎？" at 33%, meaning the market assigns a 33% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Jon Ossoff或Raphael Warnock在2026年退出參議院？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.