Recent polling averages and forecaster ratings show multiple 2026 Senate contests clustered within narrow margins, particularly in Ohio, Alaska, Texas, Maine, and Michigan, where models project differences of 1–2 points amid a national environment shaped by economic concerns and midterm dynamics. Cook Political Report’s August 20 shifts of Iowa and Texas to toss-up status, alongside completed primaries in Alaska and elsewhere, have expanded the set of viable battlegrounds. Democrats defend open or vulnerable seats in Georgia and Michigan while targeting Republican-held states including North Carolina and Maine; Republicans seek gains in those Democratic defenses and must hold competitive red-state terrain. Candidate matchups, turnout patterns in swing areas, and any further shifts in the generic ballot will determine which races finish inside 1 percent on Election Day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於最新
2026-11-03
Virginia
50%
Colorado
50%
Montana
50%
New Mexico
50%
Georgia
50%
Minnesota
50%
Texas
50%
Maine
50%
Michigan
50%
Iowa
50%
Alaska
50%
Ohio (Special)
50%
New Hampshire
50%
Nebraska
50%
Florida (Special)
50%
North Carolina
50%
$0.00 交易量
Virginia
$0 交易量
50%
Colorado
$0 交易量
50%
Montana
$0 交易量
50%
New Mexico
$0 交易量
50%
Georgia
$0 交易量
50%
Minnesota
$0 交易量
50%
Texas
$0 交易量
50%
Maine
$0 交易量
50%
Michigan
$0 交易量
50%
Iowa
$0 交易量
50%
Alaska
$0 交易量
50%
Ohio (Special)
$0 交易量
50%
New Hampshire
$0 交易量
50%
Nebraska
$0 交易量
50%
Florida (Special)
$0 交易量
50%
North Carolina
$0 交易量
50%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling averages and forecaster ratings show multiple 2026 Senate contests clustered within narrow margins, particularly in Ohio, Alaska, Texas, Maine, and Michigan, where models project differences of 1–2 points amid a national environment shaped by economic concerns and midterm dynamics. Cook Political Report’s August 20 shifts of Iowa and Texas to toss-up status, alongside completed primaries in Alaska and elsewhere, have expanded the set of viable battlegrounds. Democrats defend open or vulnerable seats in Georgia and Michigan while targeting Republican-held states including North Carolina and Maine; Republicans seek gains in those Democratic defenses and must hold competitive red-state terrain. Candidate matchups, turnout patterns in swing areas, and any further shifts in the generic ballot will determine which races finish inside 1 percent on Election Day.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Aug 21, 2026, 4:06 PM ET
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Aug 21, 2026, 4:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling averages and forecaster ratings show multiple 2026 Senate contests clustered within narrow margins, particularly in Ohio, Alaska, Texas, Maine, and Michigan, where models project differences of 1–2 points amid a national environment shaped by economic concerns and midterm dynamics. Cook Political Report’s August 20 shifts of Iowa and Texas to toss-up status, alongside completed primaries in Alaska and elsewhere, have expanded the set of viable battlegrounds. Democrats defend open or vulnerable seats in Georgia and Michigan while targeting Republican-held states including North Carolina and Maine; Republicans seek gains in those Democratic defenses and must hold competitive red-state terrain. Candidate matchups, turnout patterns in swing areas, and any further shifts in the generic ballot will determine which races finish inside 1 percent on Election Day.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Aug 21, 2026, 4:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling averages and forecaster ratings show multiple 2026 Senate contests clustered within narrow margins, particularly in Ohio, Alaska, Texas, Maine, and Michigan, where models project differences of 1–2 points amid a national environment shaped by economic concerns and midterm dynamics. Cook Political Report’s August 20 shifts of Iowa and Texas to toss-up status, alongside completed primaries in Alaska and elsewhere, have expanded the set of viable battlegrounds. Democrats defend open or vulnerable seats in Georgia and Michigan while targeting Republican-held states including North Carolina and Maine; Republicans seek gains in those Democratic defenses and must hold competitive red-state terrain. Candidate matchups, turnout patterns in swing areas, and any further shifts in the generic ballot will determine which races finish inside 1 percent on Election Day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions