Incumbent Republican Phil Scott maintains a strong position in the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial race due to his five prior terms, broad appeal as a moderate in a Democratic-leaning state, and consistent polling leads in recent surveys. Multiple October polls, including those from Vermont Public and State Navigate, show Scott ahead by 3 to 10 points among likely voters, reversing a late-September University of New Hampshire survey that placed the race in a statistical tie. Democratic nominee Amanda Janoo, an economist and primary winner, has gained visibility through endorsements including from Sen. Bernie Sanders, yet faces challenges as a first-time candidate against Scott’s established record. Trader consensus reflects these dynamics, with uncertainty tied to polling volatility and turnout in the final weeks before November 3.