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政治·最高法院

塞繆爾·阿利託會在…前宣布退休嗎？

icon for 塞繆爾·阿利託會在…前宣布退休嗎？
政治·最高法院

塞繆爾·阿利託會在…前宣布退休嗎？

$3,504,031 交易量

2026-09-30
Polymarket

$3,504,031 交易量

Polymarket

9月30日

$1,038,638 交易量

1%

12月31日

$816,434 交易量

6%

2027年6月30日

$47,295 交易量

36%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.Justice Samuel Alito, 76, publicly confirmed in a Wall Street Journal interview published August 7, 2026, that he plans to serve another Supreme Court term beginning in October, directly addressing speculation triggered by an erroneous NPR retirement report from late June. The justice rejected notions of strategic timing tied to Republican Senate control ahead of the November midterms, noting that calls for his departure serve as an unwelcome reminder of mortality and that justices are not interchangeable. Sources indicate he has selected clerks for the 2026-2027 term, and no retirement announcement has occurred. Trader sentiment on the timing of any announcement reflects these statements alongside broader patterns of lifetime tenure, Senate confirmation dynamics, and historical justice retirements during aligned presidential and congressional control.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future.

Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.
交易量
$3,504,031
結束日期
2027-07-01
市場開放時間
Jun 30, 2026, 11:22 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.Justice Samuel Alito, 76, publicly confirmed in a Wall Street Journal interview published August 7, 2026, that he plans to serve another Supreme Court term beginning in October, directly addressing speculation triggered by an erroneous NPR retirement report from late June. The justice rejected notions of strategic timing tied to Republican Senate control ahead of the November midterms, noting that calls for his departure serve as an unwelcome reminder of mortality and that justices are not interchangeable. Sources indicate he has selected clerks for the 2026-2027 term, and no retirement announcement has occurred. Trader sentiment on the timing of any announcement reflects these statements alongside broader patterns of lifetime tenure, Senate confirmation dynamics, and historical justice retirements during aligned presidential and congressional control.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future.

Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.
交易量
$3,504,031
結束日期
2027-07-01
市場開放時間
Jun 30, 2026, 11:22 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Alito announces that he will retire from his position as Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The announced timing of his retirement may be immediate, at the end of the current Supreme Court term, or at any point in the future. Any qualifying announcement from Alito will count for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced retirement goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official announcements from Alito or one of his official representatives.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"塞繆爾·阿利託會在…前宣布退休嗎？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2027年6月30日" at 36%, followed by "12月31日" at 6%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 36¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "塞繆爾·阿利託會在…前宣布退休嗎？" has generated $3.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 17, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "塞繆爾·阿利託會在…前宣布退休嗎？," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "塞繆爾·阿利託會在…前宣布退休嗎？" is "2027年6月30日" at 36%, meaning the market assigns a 36% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "12月31日" at 6%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "塞繆爾·阿利託會在…前宣布退休嗎？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.