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icon for 特朗普政府接下來將提名誰為SCOTUS Justice ？

特朗普政府接下來將提名誰為SCOTUS Justice ？

icon for 特朗普政府接下來將提名誰為SCOTUS Justice ？

特朗普政府接下來將提名誰為SCOTUS Justice ？

安德魯·奧德漢姆 13%

史蒂文·梅納什 11.6%

詹姆斯·何 12%

帕特里克·布馬塔伊 10.7%

Polymarket
最新

安德魯·奧德漢姆 13%

史蒂文·梅納什 11.6%

詹姆斯·何 12%

帕特里克·布馬塔伊 10.7%

Polymarket
最新

安德魯·奧德漢姆

$637 交易量

13%

史蒂文·梅納什

$103 交易量

12%

詹姆斯·何

$326 交易量

12%

帕特里克·布馬塔伊

$875 交易量

11%

麥克·李

$125 交易量

9%

尼歐米·拉奧

$108 交易量

9%

阿穆爾·塔帕爾

$135 交易量

25%

艾琳·坎農

$222 交易量

6%

約翰·索爾

$121 交易量

5%

Gregory Katsas

$127 交易量

5%

泰德·克魯茲

$160 交易量

20%

This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order. If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Uncertainty over the timing and identity of the next Supreme Court vacancy continues to shape trader consensus around potential Trump administration nominees. With Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito signaling they plan to remain through at least 2026 and no retirements announced, the field remains wide open among Trump-appointed circuit judges such as James Ho, Andrew Oldham, Neomi Rao, Amul Thapar, and Patrick Bumatay, alongside figures like John Sauer and Aileen Cannon. Senate confirmation dynamics, the president's preference for younger conservative jurists with strong originalist records, and any midterm electoral pressures add layers of unpredictability. A retirement announcement, targeted White House signaling, or shifts in Senate composition could quickly elevate specific candidates and widen spreads among the closely matched options.

This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET.

Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.

If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$2,940
結束日期
2029-01-19
市場開放時間
Jun 24, 2026, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order. If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order. If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Uncertainty over the timing and identity of the next Supreme Court vacancy continues to shape trader consensus around potential Trump administration nominees. With Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito signaling they plan to remain through at least 2026 and no retirements announced, the field remains wide open among Trump-appointed circuit judges such as James Ho, Andrew Oldham, Neomi Rao, Amul Thapar, and Patrick Bumatay, alongside figures like John Sauer and Aileen Cannon. Senate confirmation dynamics, the president's preference for younger conservative jurists with strong originalist records, and any midterm electoral pressures add layers of unpredictability. A retirement announcement, targeted White House signaling, or shifts in Senate composition could quickly elevate specific candidates and widen spreads among the closely matched options.

This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET.

Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order.

If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$2,940
結束日期
2029-01-19
市場開放時間
Jun 24, 2026, 6:18 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the next individual who is formally nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. In the event that more than one such nomination is submitted to the Senate at the same time, this market shall resolve in favor of the nomination that was announced first or, should such a temporal determination be impossible to make, in last-name alphabetical order. If no individual is nominated to be a Justice of the Supreme Court by January 19, 2029, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"特朗普政府接下來將提名誰為SCOTUS Justice ？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "阿穆爾·塔帕爾" at 25%, followed by "泰德·克魯茲" at 20%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 25¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"特朗普政府接下來將提名誰為SCOTUS Justice ？" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jun 24, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "特朗普政府接下來將提名誰為SCOTUS Justice ？," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "特朗普政府接下來將提名誰為SCOTUS Justice ？" is "阿穆爾·塔帕爾" at 25%, meaning the market assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "泰德·克魯茲" at 20%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "特朗普政府接下來將提名誰為SCOTUS Justice ？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.