European leaders have consistently prioritized defensive naval deployments and diplomatic coordination to safeguard Strait of Hormuz navigation rather than launching direct strikes on Iranian territory. Joint statements from France, Germany, and the UK have condemned Iranian missile and drone attacks while urging negotiated solutions and proportionate responses limited to protecting allies and shipping lanes. Traders reflect this stance through near-certain pricing on the negative outcome, given Europe's focus on coalition planning for post-hostility security missions and constraints from economic fallout tied to oil flows plus domestic political resistance to escalation. A major Iranian attack on European bases or assets remains the clearest trigger that could still shift assessments before the June 30 deadline.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$1,372,209 交易量
$1,372,209 交易量
2026-06-30
是
$1,372,209 交易量
$1,372,209 交易量
2026-06-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.European leaders have consistently prioritized defensive naval deployments and diplomatic coordination to safeguard Strait of Hormuz navigation rather than launching direct strikes on Iranian territory. Joint statements from France, Germany, and the UK have condemned Iranian missile and drone attacks while urging negotiated solutions and proportionate responses limited to protecting allies and shipping lanes. Traders reflect this stance through near-certain pricing on the negative outcome, given Europe's focus on coalition planning for post-hostility security missions and constraints from economic fallout tied to oil flows plus domestic political resistance to escalation. A major Iranian attack on European bases or assets remains the clearest trigger that could still shift assessments before the June 30 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Feb 16, 2026, 11:42 AM ET
交易量
$1,372,209結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Feb 16, 2026, 11:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.European leaders have consistently prioritized defensive naval deployments and diplomatic coordination to safeguard Strait of Hormuz navigation rather than launching direct strikes on Iranian territory. Joint statements from France, Germany, and the UK have condemned Iranian missile and drone attacks while urging negotiated solutions and proportionate responses limited to protecting allies and shipping lanes. Traders reflect this stance through near-certain pricing on the negative outcome, given Europe's focus on coalition planning for post-hostility security missions and constraints from economic fallout tied to oil flows plus domestic political resistance to escalation. A major Iranian attack on European bases or assets remains the clearest trigger that could still shift assessments before the June 30 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,372,209結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Feb 16, 2026, 11:42 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...European leaders have consistently prioritized defensive naval deployments and diplomatic coordination to safeguard Strait of Hormuz navigation rather than launching direct strikes on Iranian territory. Joint statements from France, Germany, and the UK have condemned Iranian missile and drone attacks while urging negotiated solutions and proportionate responses limited to protecting allies and shipping lanes. Traders reflect this stance through near-certain pricing on the negative outcome, given Europe's focus on coalition planning for post-hostility security missions and constraints from economic fallout tied to oil flows plus domestic political resistance to escalation. A major Iranian attack on European bases or assets remains the clearest trigger that could still shift assessments before the June 30 deadline.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions