Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions have kept the Strait of Hormuz—a conduit for roughly 20 percent of global oil exports—under tight naval scrutiny, with U.S. Central Command’s Project Freedom initiative deploying guided-missile destroyers to escort merchant traffic and clear potential threats since early May. This has already produced measurable effects on energy benchmarks, including elevated tanker insurance premiums and a widening contango in front-month Brent crude futures as traders price in intermittent supply disruptions. European capitals face explicit warnings from Tehran against additional deployments, yet market-implied odds reflect strong consensus around continued U.S. presence through the May 31 resolution window, with ancillary participation from the United Kingdom and France appearing in coalition planning. Any widening of naval escorts would likely compress risk premia in the energy complex while lifting shares of major shipping and defense contractors, though a swift diplomatic de-escalation remains the dominant swing factor still absent from recent data releases.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$1,003,298 交易量
2026-05-31
United Kingdom
4%
France
4%
Germany
1%
Italy
1%
Netherlands
1%
Japan
1%
Canada
<1%
India
2%
Greece
<1%
Pakistan
<1%
Saudi Arabia
2%
UAE
4%
Bahrain
3%
Qatar
<1%
Kuwait
4%
Oman
1%
South Korea
<1%
Australia
<1%
$1,003,298 交易量
United Kingdom
$162,345 交易量
4%
France
$95,195 交易量
4%
Germany
$166,634 交易量
1%
Italy
$74,399 交易量
1%
Netherlands
$50,968 交易量
1%
Japan
$112,031 交易量
1%
Canada
$19,730 交易量
<1%
India
$7,405 交易量
2%
Greece
$18,380 交易量
<1%
Pakistan
$11,940 交易量
<1%
Saudi Arabia
$20,305 交易量
2%
UAE
$2,764 交易量
4%
Bahrain
$18,919 交易量
3%
Qatar
$5,626 交易量
<1%
Kuwait
$1,362 交易量
4%
Oman
$4,498 交易量
1%
South Korea
$83,114 交易量
<1%
Australia
$72,042 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions have kept the Strait of Hormuz—a conduit for roughly 20 percent of global oil exports—under tight naval scrutiny, with U.S. Central Command’s Project Freedom initiative deploying guided-missile destroyers to escort merchant traffic and clear potential threats since early May. This has already produced measurable effects on energy benchmarks, including elevated tanker insurance premiums and a widening contango in front-month Brent crude futures as traders price in intermittent supply disruptions. European capitals face explicit warnings from Tehran against additional deployments, yet market-implied odds reflect strong consensus around continued U.S. presence through the May 31 resolution window, with ancillary participation from the United Kingdom and France appearing in coalition planning. Any widening of naval escorts would likely compress risk premia in the energy complex while lifting shares of major shipping and defense contractors, though a swift diplomatic de-escalation remains the dominant swing factor still absent from recent data releases.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
市場開放時間： May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
交易量
$1,003,298結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions have kept the Strait of Hormuz—a conduit for roughly 20 percent of global oil exports—under tight naval scrutiny, with U.S. Central Command’s Project Freedom initiative deploying guided-missile destroyers to escort merchant traffic and clear potential threats since early May. This has already produced measurable effects on energy benchmarks, including elevated tanker insurance premiums and a widening contango in front-month Brent crude futures as traders price in intermittent supply disruptions. European capitals face explicit warnings from Tehran against additional deployments, yet market-implied odds reflect strong consensus around continued U.S. presence through the May 31 resolution window, with ancillary participation from the United Kingdom and France appearing in coalition planning. Any widening of naval escorts would likely compress risk premia in the energy complex while lifting shares of major shipping and defense contractors, though a swift diplomatic de-escalation remains the dominant swing factor still absent from recent data releases.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
交易量
$1,003,298結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Escalating U.S.-Iran tensions have kept the Strait of Hormuz—a conduit for roughly 20 percent of global oil exports—under tight naval scrutiny, with U.S. Central Command’s Project Freedom initiative deploying guided-missile destroyers to escort merchant traffic and clear potential threats since early May. This has already produced measurable effects on energy benchmarks, including elevated tanker insurance premiums and a widening contango in front-month Brent crude futures as traders price in intermittent supply disruptions. European capitals face explicit warnings from Tehran against additional deployments, yet market-implied odds reflect strong consensus around continued U.S. presence through the May 31 resolution window, with ancillary participation from the United Kingdom and France appearing in coalition planning. Any widening of naval escorts would likely compress risk premia in the energy complex while lifting shares of major shipping and defense contractors, though a swift diplomatic de-escalation remains the dominant swing factor still absent from recent data releases.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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