Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 98.7% for the Iranian regime falling by May 31, reflecting its resilience amid severe pressures from the 2025–2026 protests, a U.S.-Israel military campaign ending in an April 8 ceasefire, and Supreme Leader Khamenei's assassination. Brutal crackdowns quashed the January uprising by late April, with recent executions of protesters underscoring regime control via the IRGC and Basij forces. Despite shaky ceasefire talks—Trump rejected Tehran's latest proposal on May 11—and ongoing economic strain from sanctions and war damage, no mass defections, institutional collapse, or renewed mass unrest have emerged in the past 30 days. Realistic shifts could stem from ceasefire breakdown, major IRGC mutinies, or sudden diplomatic isolation, though the short timeline limits feasibility.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$19,205,478 交易量
$19,205,478 交易量
2026-05-31
是
$19,205,478 交易量
$19,205,478 交易量
2026-05-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 98.7% for the Iranian regime falling by May 31, reflecting its resilience amid severe pressures from the 2025–2026 protests, a U.S.-Israel military campaign ending in an April 8 ceasefire, and Supreme Leader Khamenei's assassination. Brutal crackdowns quashed the January uprising by late April, with recent executions of protesters underscoring regime control via the IRGC and Basij forces. Despite shaky ceasefire talks—Trump rejected Tehran's latest proposal on May 11—and ongoing economic strain from sanctions and war damage, no mass defections, institutional collapse, or renewed mass unrest have emerged in the past 30 days. Realistic shifts could stem from ceasefire breakdown, major IRGC mutinies, or sudden diplomatic isolation, though the short timeline limits feasibility.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ET
交易量
$19,205,478結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 98.7% for the Iranian regime falling by May 31, reflecting its resilience amid severe pressures from the 2025–2026 protests, a U.S.-Israel military campaign ending in an April 8 ceasefire, and Supreme Leader Khamenei's assassination. Brutal crackdowns quashed the January uprising by late April, with recent executions of protesters underscoring regime control via the IRGC and Basij forces. Despite shaky ceasefire talks—Trump rejected Tehran's latest proposal on May 11—and ongoing economic strain from sanctions and war damage, no mass defections, institutional collapse, or renewed mass unrest have emerged in the past 30 days. Realistic shifts could stem from ceasefire breakdown, major IRGC mutinies, or sudden diplomatic isolation, though the short timeline limits feasibility.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$19,205,478結束日期
2026-05-31市場開放時間
Apr 1, 2026, 12:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at 98.7% for the Iranian regime falling by May 31, reflecting its resilience amid severe pressures from the 2025–2026 protests, a U.S.-Israel military campaign ending in an April 8 ceasefire, and Supreme Leader Khamenei's assassination. Brutal crackdowns quashed the January uprising by late April, with recent executions of protesters underscoring regime control via the IRGC and Basij forces. Despite shaky ceasefire talks—Trump rejected Tehran's latest proposal on May 11—and ongoing economic strain from sanctions and war damage, no mass defections, institutional collapse, or renewed mass unrest have emerged in the past 30 days. Realistic shifts could stem from ceasefire breakdown, major IRGC mutinies, or sudden diplomatic isolation, though the short timeline limits feasibility.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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