Iran's political landscape features persistent factional tensions between hardline IRGC elements and more pragmatic officials amid economic strain and post-2026 war recovery, yet these dynamics have not produced a widely reported coup attempt. Security forces have sustained crackdowns on protests and dissent since early 2026, while internal disputes over issues like Strait of Hormuz arrangements highlight competing influences without triggering open challenges to leadership. Trader consensus assigns roughly 12% probability to a coup attempt by December 31, 2026, consistent with the regime's institutional controls and historical patterns of suppressing organized opposition. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments could alter risk assessments if they intensify elite fractures.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$2,115,813 交易量
2026-12-31
12月31日
12%
$2,115,813 交易量
12月31日
$74,587 交易量
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's political landscape features persistent factional tensions between hardline IRGC elements and more pragmatic officials amid economic strain and post-2026 war recovery, yet these dynamics have not produced a widely reported coup attempt. Security forces have sustained crackdowns on protests and dissent since early 2026, while internal disputes over issues like Strait of Hormuz arrangements highlight competing influences without triggering open challenges to leadership. Trader consensus assigns roughly 12% probability to a coup attempt by December 31, 2026, consistent with the regime's institutional controls and historical patterns of suppressing organized opposition. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments could alter risk assessments if they intensify elite fractures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
交易量
$2,115,813結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's political landscape features persistent factional tensions between hardline IRGC elements and more pragmatic officials amid economic strain and post-2026 war recovery, yet these dynamics have not produced a widely reported coup attempt. Security forces have sustained crackdowns on protests and dissent since early 2026, while internal disputes over issues like Strait of Hormuz arrangements highlight competing influences without triggering open challenges to leadership. Trader consensus assigns roughly 12% probability to a coup attempt by December 31, 2026, consistent with the regime's institutional controls and historical patterns of suppressing organized opposition. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments could alter risk assessments if they intensify elite fractures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$2,115,813結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's political landscape features persistent factional tensions between hardline IRGC elements and more pragmatic officials amid economic strain and post-2026 war recovery, yet these dynamics have not produced a widely reported coup attempt. Security forces have sustained crackdowns on protests and dissent since early 2026, while internal disputes over issues like Strait of Hormuz arrangements highlight competing influences without triggering open challenges to leadership. Trader consensus assigns roughly 12% probability to a coup attempt by December 31, 2026, consistent with the regime's institutional controls and historical patterns of suppressing organized opposition. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments could alter risk assessments if they intensify elite fractures.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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