Ongoing anti-government protests in Iran, sparked by economic pressures and currency issues since late 2025 and escalating after U.S.-Israeli strikes in February 2026 that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, remain the central driver of trader assessments. Mojtaba Khamenei’s succession via constitutional process has coincided with military leadership adjustments and IRGC-led crackdowns, including recent executions tied to alleged external sabotage during January unrest. Exiled opposition figures have called for coordinated action to seize urban centers, while authorities attribute violence to foreign-backed groups. No verified high-level military defections or coup attempts have materialized amid the regime’s historical resilience to internal challenges. Traders monitor post-U.S. midterm diplomatic signals, protest momentum, and any fractures within security forces for shifts in implied probabilities.