Persistent absence of formal diplomatic relations since the 1980 hostage crisis remains the dominant factor behind the 95% trader consensus against reopening a U.S. embassy in Iran during 2026. Multiple 2026 security alerts from the U.S. Virtual Embassy Iran have urged American citizens to depart amid protests and instability, while sanctions, naval enforcement measures, and indirect talks on nuclear issues have continued without progress toward normalization or interest-section expansion. Historical precedent shows embassy restoration requires sustained bilateral agreements and verified de-escalation, conditions unmet in the current environment of mutual sanctions and regional tensions. Late-year breakthroughs remain possible but face steep procedural and political hurdles within the calendar year.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
5% 機率
$158,331 交易量
$158,331 交易量
2026-12-30
是
5% 機率
$158,331 交易量
$158,331 交易量
2026-12-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Persistent absence of formal diplomatic relations since the 1980 hostage crisis remains the dominant factor behind the 95% trader consensus against reopening a U.S. embassy in Iran during 2026. Multiple 2026 security alerts from the U.S. Virtual Embassy Iran have urged American citizens to depart amid protests and instability, while sanctions, naval enforcement measures, and indirect talks on nuclear issues have continued without progress toward normalization or interest-section expansion. Historical precedent shows embassy restoration requires sustained bilateral agreements and verified de-escalation, conditions unmet in the current environment of mutual sanctions and regional tensions. Late-year breakthroughs remain possible but face steep procedural and political hurdles within the calendar year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市場開放時間： Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ET
交易量
$158,331結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Persistent absence of formal diplomatic relations since the 1980 hostage crisis remains the dominant factor behind the 95% trader consensus against reopening a U.S. embassy in Iran during 2026. Multiple 2026 security alerts from the U.S. Virtual Embassy Iran have urged American citizens to depart amid protests and instability, while sanctions, naval enforcement measures, and indirect talks on nuclear issues have continued without progress toward normalization or interest-section expansion. Historical precedent shows embassy restoration requires sustained bilateral agreements and verified de-escalation, conditions unmet in the current environment of mutual sanctions and regional tensions. Late-year breakthroughs remain possible but face steep procedural and political hurdles within the calendar year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces the reopening/opening of any embassy or consulate in Iran, or if such a reopening/opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual embassy or consulate opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a U.S. embassy or consulate in Iran will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening an embassy or consulate, such as general diplomatic statements, exploratory comments, or partial/conditional steps, will not count.
The resolution source will be official statements from the Governments of the U.S.; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$158,331結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Mar 1, 2026, 3:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent absence of formal diplomatic relations since the 1980 hostage crisis remains the dominant factor behind the 95% trader consensus against reopening a U.S. embassy in Iran during 2026. Multiple 2026 security alerts from the U.S. Virtual Embassy Iran have urged American citizens to depart amid protests and instability, while sanctions, naval enforcement measures, and indirect talks on nuclear issues have continued without progress toward normalization or interest-section expansion. Historical precedent shows embassy restoration requires sustained bilateral agreements and verified de-escalation, conditions unmet in the current environment of mutual sanctions and regional tensions. Late-year breakthroughs remain possible but face steep procedural and political hurdles within the calendar year.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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