Lee Jae-myung has served as South Korea’s president since his June 2025 victory in the snap election that followed Yoon Suk-yeol’s removal. The Democratic Party maintains a supermajority in the National Assembly from the prior general election, a structural barrier that makes the two-thirds vote required for impeachment proceedings improbable in the current term. A June 2026 opposition petition seeking his removal over ongoing criminal cases quickly gathered signatures but advanced no further, as expected given the ruling party’s control of the legislative agenda and committee process. Lee has emphasized pragmatic, centrist policies and national unity since taking office, with no major scandals or defections reported that would erode his party’s cohesion or create cross-aisle momentum. His legal cases remain largely paused under presidential immunity protections, and the next National Assembly election lies in 2028—well after the 2027 horizon. Traders therefore price a very low probability of successful impeachment before then, consistent with the party arithmetic and absence of recent catalysts capable of shifting legislative majorities.