Trader consensus assigns a 93.5 percent probability that North Korea will not invade South Korea before 2027 because Pyongyang has prioritized nuclear and missile deterrence over conventional offensive preparations. North Korea’s constitutional amendments, formalized during the March 2026 Supreme People’s Assembly and detailed in May, removed reunification mandates and defined its territory as bordering a separate hostile Republic of Korea, signaling a policy of assurance against initiating conflict. Ongoing ballistic missile tests and artillery upgrades in April and May enhance border defenses and coercion capabilities without evidence of large-scale mobilization. The U.S.-South Korea alliance continues to provide credible extended deterrence, while North Korea focuses diplomatic efforts on Washington and its northern partners. Late-breaking shifts in U.S. policy or major escalation elsewhere could still alter this outlook.