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政治·獎項

2026年諾貝爾和平獎得主

icon for 2026年諾貝爾和平獎得主
政治·獎項

2026年諾貝爾和平獎得主

尤莉婭·納瓦利娜雅 8%

弗拉基米爾·澤連斯基 4.5%

聯合國近東巴勒斯坦難民救濟和工程處 4.3%

國際法院 3.2%

Polymarket

$23,603,038 交易量

尤莉婭·納瓦利娜雅 8%

弗拉基米爾·澤連斯基 4.5%

聯合國近東巴勒斯坦難民救濟和工程處 4.3%

國際法院 3.2%

Polymarket

$23,603,038 交易量

icon for 尤莉婭·納瓦利娜雅

尤莉婭·納瓦利娜雅

$292,115 交易量

8%

icon for 弗拉基米爾·澤連斯基

弗拉基米爾·澤連斯基

$797,008 交易量

4%

icon for 聯合國近東巴勒斯坦難民救濟和工程處

聯合國近東巴勒斯坦難民救濟和工程處

$2,046,308 交易量

4%

icon for 國際法院

國際法院

$908,760 交易量

3%

icon for 教宗利奧十四

教宗利奧十四

$816,916 交易量

3%

icon for 唐納·川普

唐納·川普

$4,464,344 交易量

2%

icon for 塔米姆·本·哈馬德·阿勒薩尼

塔米姆·本·哈馬德·阿勒薩尼

$787,329 交易量

2%

icon for 納倫德拉·莫迪

納倫德拉·莫迪

$686,268 交易量

1%

icon for 格蕾塔·童貝里

格蕾塔·童貝里

$1,468,918 交易量

1%

icon for 艾哈邁德·阿爾-沙拉

艾哈邁德·阿爾-沙拉

$1,271,900 交易量

1%

icon for 朱利安·阿桑奇

朱利安·阿桑奇

$855,350 交易量

1%

icon for 安東尼奧·古特雷斯

安東尼奧·古特雷斯

$629,530 交易量

1%

icon for 習近平

習近平

$1,434,702 交易量

1%

icon for 哈立德·馬沙爾

哈立德·馬沙爾

$867,518 交易量

<1%

icon for 雷杰普·塔伊普·艾爾多安

雷杰普·塔伊普·艾爾多安

$1,056,552 交易量

<1%

icon for 本雅明·內塔尼亞胡

本雅明·內塔尼亞胡

$698,749 交易量

<1%

icon for 查理·柯克

查理·柯克

$1,245,631 交易量

<1%

icon for 穆罕默德·本·薩勒曼

穆罕默德·本·薩勒曼

$1,187,300 交易量

<1%

icon for 馬斯克

馬斯克

$1,181,696 交易量

<1%

icon for 弗拉基米爾·普京

弗拉基米爾·普京

$906,143 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.Yulia Navalnaya holds the narrow lead in trader sentiment at 8% implied probability, driven by her continued human rights advocacy in exile and alignment with the Norwegian Nobel Committee's historical preference for individual activists confronting authoritarian regimes. The field remains fragmented, with Zelenskyy, UNRWA, the International Court of Justice, and Pope Leo XIV clustered just behind amid competing narratives around Ukraine, humanitarian aid, international justice, and papal peace appeals. This close contest reflects the absence of a dominant frontrunner after the 2025 award to María Corina Machado, plus the secrecy of nominations closed since January. Key differentiators include recent conflict developments and the committee's track record favoring individuals over organizations in most years. The October 9 announcement looms as the primary near-term catalyst.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.

If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
交易量
$23,603,038
結束日期
2026-10-10
市場開放時間
Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ET

結算方

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.Yulia Navalnaya holds the narrow lead in trader sentiment at 8% implied probability, driven by her continued human rights advocacy in exile and alignment with the Norwegian Nobel Committee's historical preference for individual activists confronting authoritarian regimes. The field remains fragmented, with Zelenskyy, UNRWA, the International Court of Justice, and Pope Leo XIV clustered just behind amid competing narratives around Ukraine, humanitarian aid, international justice, and papal peace appeals. This close contest reflects the absence of a dominant frontrunner after the 2025 award to María Corina Machado, plus the secrecy of nominations closed since January. Key differentiators include recent conflict developments and the committee's track record favoring individuals over organizations in most years. The October 9 announcement looms as the primary near-term catalyst.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.

If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
交易量
$23,603,038
結束日期
2026-10-10
市場開放時間
Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ET

結算方

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

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特朗普、普京和澤連斯基會在2027年前一起現身嗎？

9%
是
icon for 特朗普、普京和澤連斯基會在2027年前見面嗎？

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icon for 賈斯汀·赫伯特會贏得2026年NFL最有價值球員嗎？

賈斯汀·赫伯特會贏得2026年NFL最有價值球員嗎？

13%
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警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"2026年諾貝爾和平獎得主" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 20 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "尤莉婭·納瓦利娜雅" at 8%, followed by "弗拉基米爾·澤連斯基" at 4%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 8¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 8% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026年諾貝爾和平獎得主" has generated $23.6 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 16, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026年諾貝爾和平獎得主," browse the 20 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "2026年諾貝爾和平獎得主" is "尤莉婭·納瓦利娜雅" at just 8%, with "弗拉基米爾·澤連斯基" close behind at 4%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "2026年諾貝爾和平獎得主" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.