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政治·獎項

2026年諾貝爾和平獎得主

icon for 2026年諾貝爾和平獎得主
政治·獎項

2026年諾貝爾和平獎得主

唐納·川普 10%

尤莉婭·納瓦利娜雅 8%

弗拉基米爾·澤連斯基 6.1%

聯合國近東巴勒斯坦難民救濟和工程處 5.0%

Polymarket

$17,567,985 交易量

唐納·川普 10%

尤莉婭·納瓦利娜雅 8%

弗拉基米爾·澤連斯基 6.1%

聯合國近東巴勒斯坦難民救濟和工程處 5.0%

Polymarket

$17,567,985 交易量

icon for 唐納·川普

唐納·川普

$3,365,181 交易量

10%

icon for 尤莉婭·納瓦利娜雅

尤莉婭·納瓦利娜雅

$157,089 交易量

8%

icon for 弗拉基米爾·澤連斯基

弗拉基米爾·澤連斯基

$466,324 交易量

6%

icon for 聯合國近東巴勒斯坦難民救濟和工程處

聯合國近東巴勒斯坦難民救濟和工程處

$1,945,832 交易量

5%

icon for 塔米姆·本·哈馬德·阿勒薩尼

塔米姆·本·哈馬德·阿勒薩尼

$611,010 交易量

4%

icon for 教宗利奧十四

教宗利奧十四

$698,528 交易量

3%

icon for 國際法院

國際法院

$759,723 交易量

2%

icon for 納倫德拉·莫迪

納倫德拉·莫迪

$544,446 交易量

2%

icon for 習近平

習近平

$1,138,507 交易量

1%

icon for 查理·柯克

查理·柯克

$900,446 交易量

1%

icon for 格蕾塔·童貝里

格蕾塔·童貝里

$1,191,963 交易量

1%

icon for 雷杰普·塔伊普·艾爾多安

雷杰普·塔伊普·艾爾多安

$704,675 交易量

1%

icon for 艾哈邁德·阿爾-沙拉

艾哈邁德·阿爾-沙拉

$945,973 交易量

1%

icon for 安東尼奧·古特雷斯

安東尼奧·古特雷斯

$414,956 交易量

1%

icon for 哈立德·馬沙爾

哈立德·馬沙爾

$449,607 交易量

1%

icon for 穆罕默德·本·薩勒曼

穆罕默德·本·薩勒曼

$814,117 交易量

1%

icon for 朱利安·阿桑奇

朱利安·阿桑奇

$497,207 交易量

1%

icon for 弗拉基米爾·普京

弗拉基米爾·普京

$738,343 交易量

1%

icon for 馬斯克

馬斯克

$727,665 交易量

<1%

icon for 本雅明·內塔尼亞胡

本雅明·內塔尼亞胡

$496,511 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.The April 30 announcement of 287 nominees for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has created a fragmented field where no single name exceeds single-digit implied probability, reflecting traders' view of the Norwegian Nobel Committee's historical tilt toward underdogs or collective efforts over high-profile political figures. Donald Trump's 9.5% edge stems from public endorsements by leaders in Cambodia, Israel, and Pakistan tied to his reported diplomatic pushes, yet secrecy around the process keeps momentum speculative. Yulia Navalnaya's 7.5% and Volodymyr Zelenskyy's 6.1% draw from sustained media profiles and ongoing activism narratives, while organizations like UNRWA and the International Court of Justice sit lower amid typical committee preferences for broader humanitarian themes. With the October announcement still months away, fresh developments in global diplomacy or human rights campaigns could quickly shift these closely contested odds.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.

If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
交易量
$17,567,985
結束日期
2026-10-10
市場開放時間
Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.The April 30 announcement of 287 nominees for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has created a fragmented field where no single name exceeds single-digit implied probability, reflecting traders' view of the Norwegian Nobel Committee's historical tilt toward underdogs or collective efforts over high-profile political figures. Donald Trump's 9.5% edge stems from public endorsements by leaders in Cambodia, Israel, and Pakistan tied to his reported diplomatic pushes, yet secrecy around the process keeps momentum speculative. Yulia Navalnaya's 7.5% and Volodymyr Zelenskyy's 6.1% draw from sustained media profiles and ongoing activism narratives, while organizations like UNRWA and the International Court of Justice sit lower amid typical committee preferences for broader humanitarian themes. With the October announcement still months away, fresh developments in global diplomacy or human rights campaigns could quickly shift these closely contested odds.

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.

If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.
交易量
$17,567,985
結束日期
2026-10-10
市場開放時間
Oct 16, 2025, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee. If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market. If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other." The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"2026年諾貝爾和平獎得主" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 20 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "唐納·川普" at 10%, followed by "尤莉婭·納瓦利娜雅" at 8%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 10¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 10% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2026年諾貝爾和平獎得主" has generated $17.6 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 16, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2026年諾貝爾和平獎得主," browse the 20 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2026年諾貝爾和平獎得主" is "唐納·川普" at 10%, meaning the market assigns a 10% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "尤莉婭·納瓦利娜雅" at 8%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2026年諾貝爾和平獎得主" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.