No EU member state has invoked Article 50 or advanced a binding exit referendum since the United Kingdom's 2020 departure, keeping withdrawal probabilities low through 2026. Recent developments underscore this stability, including Poland's March 2026 polling showing sustained pro-EU sentiment that dismissed Polexit speculation, France's February Frexit protests that failed to shift National Rally policy toward departure, and Hungary's focus on blocking Ukraine's accession rather than pursuing Huxit. Speculation from December 2025 about U.S. efforts to influence Italy, Austria, Poland, or Hungary produced no diplomatic movement. Deep economic ties, shared security interests, and the procedural hurdles of national referendums or parliamentary votes reinforce trader expectations that no exit will occur before 2027, absent sudden crises or snap elections.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於有哪個國家在2027年之前退出歐盟？
有哪個國家在2027年之前退出歐盟？
是
$138,684 交易量
$138,684 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$138,684 交易量
$138,684 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.No EU member state has invoked Article 50 or advanced a binding exit referendum since the United Kingdom's 2020 departure, keeping withdrawal probabilities low through 2026. Recent developments underscore this stability, including Poland's March 2026 polling showing sustained pro-EU sentiment that dismissed Polexit speculation, France's February Frexit protests that failed to shift National Rally policy toward departure, and Hungary's focus on blocking Ukraine's accession rather than pursuing Huxit. Speculation from December 2025 about U.S. efforts to influence Italy, Austria, Poland, or Hungary produced no diplomatic movement. Deep economic ties, shared security interests, and the procedural hurdles of national referendums or parliamentary votes reinforce trader expectations that no exit will occur before 2027, absent sudden crises or snap elections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ET
交易量
$138,684結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.No EU member state has invoked Article 50 or advanced a binding exit referendum since the United Kingdom's 2020 departure, keeping withdrawal probabilities low through 2026. Recent developments underscore this stability, including Poland's March 2026 polling showing sustained pro-EU sentiment that dismissed Polexit speculation, France's February Frexit protests that failed to shift National Rally policy toward departure, and Hungary's focus on blocking Ukraine's accession rather than pursuing Huxit. Speculation from December 2025 about U.S. efforts to influence Italy, Austria, Poland, or Hungary produced no diplomatic movement. Deep economic ties, shared security interests, and the procedural hurdles of national referendums or parliamentary votes reinforce trader expectations that no exit will occur before 2027, absent sudden crises or snap elections.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$138,684結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No EU member state has invoked Article 50 or advanced a binding exit referendum since the United Kingdom's 2020 departure, keeping withdrawal probabilities low through 2026. Recent developments underscore this stability, including Poland's March 2026 polling showing sustained pro-EU sentiment that dismissed Polexit speculation, France's February Frexit protests that failed to shift National Rally policy toward departure, and Hungary's focus on blocking Ukraine's accession rather than pursuing Huxit. Speculation from December 2025 about U.S. efforts to influence Italy, Austria, Poland, or Hungary produced no diplomatic movement. Deep economic ties, shared security interests, and the procedural hurdles of national referendums or parliamentary votes reinforce trader expectations that no exit will occur before 2027, absent sudden crises or snap elections.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions