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icon for 有哪個國家在2027年之前退出歐盟?

有哪個國家在2027年之前退出歐盟?

icon for 有哪個國家在2027年之前退出歐盟?

有哪個國家在2027年之前退出歐盟?

3% 機率
Polymarket

$167,308 交易量

3% 機率
Polymarket

$167,308 交易量

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.No EU member state has initiated Article 50 withdrawal procedures or scheduled an exit referendum, reflecting the lasting impact of the UK's departure and sustained high public support for membership across the bloc. Euroskeptic parties in countries such as Germany, Poland, and Denmark have largely pivoted from exit demands toward internal influence or associate arrangements, with polling indicating limited appetite for departure. The formal notification-to-exit timeline of at least two years further reduces the chance of completion before 2027. Sudden national political shifts or major crises could still trigger a notification, though rapid completion would require unprecedented acceleration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$167,308
結束日期
2027-01-01
市場開放時間
Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.No EU member state has initiated Article 50 withdrawal procedures or scheduled an exit referendum, reflecting the lasting impact of the UK's departure and sustained high public support for membership across the bloc. Euroskeptic parties in countries such as Germany, Poland, and Denmark have largely pivoted from exit demands toward internal influence or associate arrangements, with polling indicating limited appetite for departure. The formal notification-to-exit timeline of at least two years further reduces the chance of completion before 2027. Sudden national political shifts or major crises could still trigger a notification, though rapid completion would require unprecedented acceleration.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$167,308
結束日期
2027-01-01
市場開放時間
Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ET

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"有哪個國家在2027年之前退出歐盟?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "有任何國家在2027年前退出歐盟嗎?" at 3%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 3¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 3% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "有哪個國家在2027年之前退出歐盟?" has generated $167.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 7, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "有哪個國家在2027年之前退出歐盟?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "有哪個國家在2027年之前退出歐盟?" is "有任何國家在2027年前退出歐盟嗎?" at just 3%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "有哪個國家在2027年之前退出歐盟?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.