Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a robust 90.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolution in 2026, driven by core OPEC+ members' sustained coordination following the UAE's exit effective May 1. Despite this shock—echoing prior departures by Angola, Ecuador, and Qatar—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others reaffirmed market stability through April-May production adjustments, including a 188,000 barrels-per-day hike for June announced May 3 amid Iran conflict disruptions. Ongoing press releases and output tweaks underscore the cartel's resilience, prioritizing supply management over global surpluses projected at 2-4 million bpd early 2026. Realistic challenges include quota non-compliance by Iran and Iraq, potential Saudi fatigue with voluntary cuts, or escalated Mideast tensions fracturing unity further, though historical precedents favor persistence into year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$16,734 交易量
$16,734 交易量
2026-12-31
$16,734 交易量
$16,734 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a robust 90.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolution in 2026, driven by core OPEC+ members' sustained coordination following the UAE's exit effective May 1. Despite this shock—echoing prior departures by Angola, Ecuador, and Qatar—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others reaffirmed market stability through April-May production adjustments, including a 188,000 barrels-per-day hike for June announced May 3 amid Iran conflict disruptions. Ongoing press releases and output tweaks underscore the cartel's resilience, prioritizing supply management over global surpluses projected at 2-4 million bpd early 2026. Realistic challenges include quota non-compliance by Iran and Iraq, potential Saudi fatigue with voluntary cuts, or escalated Mideast tensions fracturing unity further, though historical precedents favor persistence into year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ET
交易量
$16,734結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a robust 90.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolution in 2026, driven by core OPEC+ members' sustained coordination following the UAE's exit effective May 1. Despite this shock—echoing prior departures by Angola, Ecuador, and Qatar—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others reaffirmed market stability through April-May production adjustments, including a 188,000 barrels-per-day hike for June announced May 3 amid Iran conflict disruptions. Ongoing press releases and output tweaks underscore the cartel's resilience, prioritizing supply management over global surpluses projected at 2-4 million bpd early 2026. Realistic challenges include quota non-compliance by Iran and Iraq, potential Saudi fatigue with voluntary cuts, or escalated Mideast tensions fracturing unity further, though historical precedents favor persistence into year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OPEC will be considered dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:
- More than half of the OPEC member states, as of market creation and excluding the United Arab Emirates, officially withdraw from OPEC.
- An official agreement amongst the OPEC member states is adopted which dissolves, disbands, terminates, or otherwise formally ends OPEC.
- OPEC otherwise ceases to exist as an intergovernmental organization or legal entity.
An OPEC member state will be considered to have withdrawn once it officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC, or otherwise formally initiates withdrawal under applicable OPEC procedure, regardless of whether the withdrawal takes effect after this market’s timeframe. Withdrawals from OPEC+ will not alone be considered withdrawals from OPEC.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OPEC and OPEC member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$16,734結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Apr 28, 2026, 1:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a robust 90.5% implied probability against OPEC dissolution in 2026, driven by core OPEC+ members' sustained coordination following the UAE's exit effective May 1. Despite this shock—echoing prior departures by Angola, Ecuador, and Qatar—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, and others reaffirmed market stability through April-May production adjustments, including a 188,000 barrels-per-day hike for June announced May 3 amid Iran conflict disruptions. Ongoing press releases and output tweaks underscore the cartel's resilience, prioritizing supply management over global surpluses projected at 2-4 million bpd early 2026. Realistic challenges include quota non-compliance by Iran and Iraq, potential Saudi fatigue with voluntary cuts, or escalated Mideast tensions fracturing unity further, though historical precedents favor persistence into year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions