The UAE's May 2026 withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+—driven by long-standing disputes over production quotas and capacity expansion—represents the most recent departure and appears to have addressed the primary source of internal friction. Subsequent reports of Iraq weighing an exit in June were quickly downplayed by Baghdad, with officials reaffirming continued membership while seeking higher quotas. Remaining producers have maintained coordinated output adjustments through mid-2026 amid regional supply disruptions, with no comparable public signals or quota conflicts emerging from other members such as Kazakhstan or Nigeria. Traders assign only an 8% probability to another exit by year-end, reflecting the absence of fresh triggers and the group's adaptation to its reduced roster.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8% 機率
$160,571 交易量
$160,571 交易量
2026-12-30
8% 機率
$160,571 交易量
$160,571 交易量
2026-12-30
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The UAE's May 2026 withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+—driven by long-standing disputes over production quotas and capacity expansion—represents the most recent departure and appears to have addressed the primary source of internal friction. Subsequent reports of Iraq weighing an exit in June were quickly downplayed by Baghdad, with officials reaffirming continued membership while seeking higher quotas. Remaining producers have maintained coordinated output adjustments through mid-2026 amid regional supply disruptions, with no comparable public signals or quota conflicts emerging from other members such as Kazakhstan or Nigeria. Traders assign only an 8% probability to another exit by year-end, reflecting the absence of fresh triggers and the group's adaptation to its reduced roster.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市場開放時間： Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
交易量
$160,571結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The UAE's May 2026 withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+—driven by long-standing disputes over production quotas and capacity expansion—represents the most recent departure and appears to have addressed the primary source of internal friction. Subsequent reports of Iraq weighing an exit in June were quickly downplayed by Baghdad, with officials reaffirming continued membership while seeking higher quotas. Remaining producers have maintained coordinated output adjustments through mid-2026 amid regional supply disruptions, with no comparable public signals or quota conflicts emerging from other members such as Kazakhstan or Nigeria. Traders assign only an 8% probability to another exit by year-end, reflecting the absence of fresh triggers and the group's adaptation to its reduced roster.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$160,571結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The UAE's May 2026 withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+—driven by long-standing disputes over production quotas and capacity expansion—represents the most recent departure and appears to have addressed the primary source of internal friction. Subsequent reports of Iraq weighing an exit in June were quickly downplayed by Baghdad, with officials reaffirming continued membership while seeking higher quotas. Remaining producers have maintained coordinated output adjustments through mid-2026 amid regional supply disruptions, with no comparable public signals or quota conflicts emerging from other members such as Kazakhstan or Nigeria. Traders assign only an 8% probability to another exit by year-end, reflecting the absence of fresh triggers and the group's adaptation to its reduced roster.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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警惕外部連結哦。
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