Gina Hinojosa defeated incumbent Greg Abbott on November 3, 2026, by a margin of approximately 7.1 points (52.8% to 45.7%), with over 99% of votes counted across all 254 counties. This outcome reflects Democratic gains in urban centers such as Harris, Dallas, and Bexar counties, plus flips in key border counties like Hidalgo and Webb that had shifted in 2024. Traders have priced Hinojosa 6%+ at 99.3% because the certified vote totals place the final margin well above that threshold, consistent with the statewide swing of roughly 21 points toward Democrats relative to the prior presidential result. Remaining provisional and military ballots are too few to alter the category, though official canvassing could produce minor adjustments before resolution.